Our prognosis on Kellanova (USA Stocks:K) to bounce back in December

Kellanova, a prominent player in the Packaged Foods industry, showed significant market strength today with its stock making robust gains. The company's financial health is supported by a healthy Ebitda of $1.9B and Net Income From Continuing Ops of $962M. Although the company had a Dividends Paid loss of $797M, the Last Dividend Paid was $2.36, indicating a consistent return to shareholders. Kellanova's strong performance is further substantiated by its low Beta of 0.435, suggesting less volatility compared to the market. However, investors should also consider the firm's Current Ratio of 0.74X, indicating potential short-term liquidity risk. The company's Total Asset stands at a solid $18.5B. Despite the promising figures, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is 27.30%, which investors should not ignore. The company trades on the NYSE under the Home Category. With a Forward PE of 17.5439, investors may speculate a bullish surge for Kellanova in the horizon. While many traders are becoming overly engrossed in the analysis of the food products sector, it is prudent to highlight Kellanova. We are going to explore the potential of incorporating Kellanova into your portfolio. Is the current value of the entity sustainable? We will review the key drivers of stock valuation to provide you with a more informed perspective on whether to take a position in it.
Published over six months ago
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Reviewed by Raphi Shpitalnik

The company has accumulated $7.17 billion in total debt, with a debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.56. This appears to be acceptable when compared to the sector. Our advisory tool can be utilized to supplement the investment recommendations for Kellanova provided by experts. It evaluates the firm's growth potential against your specific risk preferences and investment timeline.

Main Points

The market reacted favorably to Kellanova today, with significant gains witnessed. However, from a valuation viewpoint, it's important to delve into the numbers. The company has an impressive EBITDA of 1.89B, showcasing robust operating profitability. However, it's important to note the negative net tangible assets, which stand at a loss of 3.6B, indicating the company has more liabilities than assets. On the brighter side, Kellanova has a Book Value Per Share of 11.58X, which is quite appealing, and a Price to Book ratio of 5.87X, indicating the stock might be undervalued. This, coupled with a low Beta of 0.44, shows the stock is less volatile than the market. Considering these data points, Kellanova seems to offer a mix of risk and reward, making it a potentially attractive investment for those looking for steady gains.
We determine the current worth of Kellanova using both absolute as well as relative valuation methodologies to arrive at its intrinsic value. In general, an absolute valuation paradigm, as applied to this company, attempts to find the value of Kellanova based exclusively on its fundamental and basic technical indicators. By analyzing Kellanova's financials, quarterly and monthly indicators, and related drivers such as dividends, operating cash flow, and various types of growth rates, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Kellanova's intrinsic value. In some cases, mostly for established, large-cap companies, we also incorporate more traditional valuation methods such as dividend discount, discounted cash flow, or asset-based models. As compared to an absolute model, our relative valuation model uses a comparative analysis of Kellanova. We calculate exposure to Kellanova's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Kellanova's related companies.

Kellanova Investment Alerts

Kellanova investment alerts and warnings help investors to get more proficient at understanding not only critical technical and fundamental signals but also the significant portfolio-centered indicators. These indicators include beta, alpha, and other risk-related measures that will help you in monitoring Kellanova performance across your portfolios.Please check all investment alerts for Kellanova

Kellanova Valuation Ratios as Compared to Competition

Our valuation model uses many indicators to compare Kellanova value to that of its competitors to determine the firm's financial worth. You can analyze the relationship between different fundamental ratios across Kellanova competition to find correlations between indicators driving the intrinsic value of Kellanova.

Kellanova Gross Profit

Kellanova Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Kellanova previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Kellanova Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Kellanova's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

A Deeper Perspective On Kellanova

Kellanova reported the annual revenue of 15.31 B. Net Income to common stockholders was 962 M with gross profit before all taxes, overhead, and interest of 4.62 B.
 2016 2017 2022 2023 (projected)
Receivables1.21 B1.37 B1.65 B1.43 B
Inventories1.24 B1.22 B1.77 B1.46 B

Margins Breakdown

Kellanova profit margins show the degree to which it makes money. Margin indicators are used not only by investors but also by creditors or Kellanova itself as indicators of financial health and management effectiveness. Please look more closely at the different varieties of Kellanova profit margins.
Operating Margin13.02
EBITDA Margin0.16
Gross Margin0.31
Profit Margin0.0784
Kellanova Net Income Per Employee is quite stable at the moment. Kellanova Revenue Per Employee is increasing over the last 7 years. Furthermore, Kellanova Calculated Tax Rate is decreasing over the last 7 years. The previous year's value of Kellanova Calculated Tax Rate was 24.79. Kellanova Net Income Per Employee is decreasing over the last 7 years. Kellanova Revenue Per Employee is quite stable at the moment.
Furthermore, Kellanova Calculated Tax Rate is decreasing over the last 7 years. The previous year's value of Kellanova Calculated Tax Rate was 24.79. As the saying goes, "Cash is king," and Kellanova's recent performance seems to be a testament to this. The company has demonstrated strong financial health with an end period cash flow of 299 million dollars and total cash from operating activities amounting to 1.7 billion dollars. Despite a current ratio of 0.74X, which indicates a potential short-term liquidity issue, the company's strong cash flow position could offset this concern. Furthermore, Kellanova's EPS estimate for the current year stands at 3.61, suggesting profitability. The company's beta of 0.44 also points to lower volatility compared to the broader market. However, investors should note the company's high debt level with long-term debt standing at 5.3 billion dollars. Overall, Kellanova's strong gains today could be a precursor to a bullish surge, but investors should carefully consider the company's financial health and market risks. .

Can Kellanova build up on the latest rise?

Despite Kellanova's recent uptick, investors should proceed with caution. The company's Jensen Alpha, a risk-adjusted performance measure, has dropped to -0.26. This negative value could potentially indicate an impending price decline, which might offset the gains from the recent rise. Although the company has demonstrated some positive momentum, this key indicator implies that Kellanova's performance, once adjusted for its inherent risk, is falling short of the expected return. Therefore, investors should closely monitor the situation before making additional investment decisions. Kellanova displays very low volatility, with a skewness of -1.81 and a kurtosis of 5.72. However, we recommend investors to further examine Kellanova's technical indicators to ensure that all market information is accessible and reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends can often assist investors in timing the market. The appropriate use of volatility indicators allows traders to measure Kellanova's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends.
The increased level of volatility that accompanies bear markets can directly affect Kellanova's stock price, adding stress for investors as they witness their shares' value decrease. This typically compels investors to rebalance their portfolios by purchasing different stocks as prices drop. In conclusion, Kellanova's stock performance today is a strong indicator of potential growth, but investors should approach with caution. The overall analyst consensus is a 'Hold', with 12 analysts maintaining this stance, one giving a 'Strong Buy' recommendation, and one suggesting a 'Strong Sell'. The company's valuation metrics also present a mixed picture. Its market value stands at $51.99, slightly above the naive expected forecast value of $51.23, but below the real value of $56.57. The potential downside price is $49.67, while the possible upside price is $52.78. The highest and lowest estimated target prices from analysts are $73 and $53 respectively, with an average target price estimated value of $59.538. Given these factors, while there is a possibility of an upsurge, investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and investment objectives before investing in Kellanova. .

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Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Rifka Kats do not own shares of Kellanova. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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