Should you exit your Lennar (NYSE:LEN) position after the latest rise?

19% of stocks are less volatile than Lennar, and above 94% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 90 days. As many adventurous traders are excited about consumer cyclical space, it is only fair to outline the risk of shorting Lennar based on its current volatility spike. We will go over odds for Lennar to generate above-average margins next month. Lennar's low volatility may still impact the value of the stock as we estimate it as currently overvalued. The real value, based on our analysis, is getting close to 69.65 per share.
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Raphi Shpitalnik

Lennar has roughly 1.42 B in cash with 3.22 B of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.54.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Lennar or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Lennar may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Lennar's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Lennar and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Lennar fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is Lennar's Liquidity

Lennar financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Lennar ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Lennar financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Lennar's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Lennar's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Lennar's total debt and its cash.

Lennar Gross Profit

Lennar Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Lennar previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Lennar Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Lennar's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Lennar Volatility Drivers

Lennar unsystematic risk is unique to Lennar and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in Lennar you can also buy PulteGroup. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the consumer discretionary sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing Lennar important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in Lennar income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about Lennar volatility.
-0.530.920.730.91-0.750.990.780.940.81-0.41-0.41-0.570.36-0.21-0.6-0.360.950.01-0.070.2-0.680.79
-0.53-0.190.06-0.380.83-0.61-0.8-0.68-0.680.290.290.48-0.8-0.180.420.47-0.650.280.0-0.30.830.0
0.92-0.190.860.84-0.540.880.560.780.63-0.27-0.27-0.40.07-0.39-0.44-0.160.810.08-0.010.18-0.380.94
0.730.060.860.74-0.160.660.260.60.57-0.14-0.14-0.230.07-0.41-0.410.090.65-0.050.00.11-0.190.89
0.91-0.380.840.74-0.560.90.610.850.75-0.61-0.61-0.660.32-0.02-0.73-0.450.850.13-0.26-0.07-0.710.69
-0.750.83-0.54-0.16-0.56-0.8-0.92-0.75-0.640.380.380.51-0.480.070.440.43-0.730.08-0.07-0.330.71-0.29
0.99-0.610.880.660.9-0.80.810.960.85-0.46-0.46-0.640.43-0.14-0.63-0.430.96-0.03-0.110.16-0.750.73
0.78-0.80.560.260.61-0.920.810.740.63-0.32-0.32-0.480.47-0.08-0.39-0.420.730.030.070.32-0.70.35
0.94-0.680.780.60.85-0.750.960.740.93-0.41-0.41-0.590.53-0.11-0.71-0.410.98-0.1-0.110.19-0.790.64
0.81-0.680.630.570.75-0.640.850.630.93-0.34-0.34-0.570.7-0.02-0.68-0.360.92-0.34-0.140.14-0.780.52
-0.410.29-0.27-0.14-0.610.38-0.46-0.32-0.41-0.341.00.88-0.25-0.610.660.77-0.37-0.220.650.580.69-0.07
-0.410.29-0.27-0.14-0.610.38-0.46-0.32-0.41-0.341.00.88-0.25-0.610.660.77-0.37-0.220.650.580.69-0.07
-0.570.48-0.4-0.23-0.660.51-0.64-0.48-0.59-0.570.880.88-0.47-0.560.560.89-0.57-0.030.750.540.83-0.25
0.36-0.80.070.070.32-0.480.430.470.530.7-0.25-0.25-0.470.23-0.35-0.330.54-0.56-0.150.14-0.730.0
-0.21-0.18-0.39-0.41-0.020.07-0.14-0.08-0.11-0.02-0.61-0.61-0.560.23-0.13-0.69-0.17-0.1-0.63-0.63-0.44-0.45
-0.60.42-0.44-0.41-0.730.44-0.63-0.39-0.71-0.680.660.660.56-0.35-0.130.38-0.67-0.180.220.120.67-0.26
-0.360.47-0.160.09-0.450.43-0.43-0.42-0.41-0.360.770.770.89-0.33-0.690.38-0.35-0.210.80.60.77-0.01
0.95-0.650.810.650.85-0.730.960.730.980.92-0.37-0.37-0.570.54-0.17-0.67-0.35-0.13-0.070.23-0.750.71
0.010.280.08-0.050.130.08-0.030.03-0.1-0.34-0.22-0.22-0.03-0.56-0.1-0.18-0.21-0.13-0.23-0.310.110.01
-0.070.0-0.010.0-0.26-0.07-0.110.07-0.11-0.140.650.650.75-0.15-0.630.220.8-0.07-0.230.90.420.01
0.2-0.30.180.11-0.07-0.330.160.320.190.140.580.580.540.14-0.630.120.60.23-0.310.90.130.19
-0.680.83-0.38-0.19-0.710.71-0.75-0.7-0.79-0.780.690.690.83-0.73-0.440.670.77-0.750.110.420.13-0.19
0.790.00.940.890.69-0.290.730.350.640.52-0.07-0.07-0.250.0-0.45-0.26-0.010.710.010.010.19-0.19
Click cells to compare fundamentals

What is driving Lennar Investor Appetite?

Lennar reported the last year's revenue of 22.62 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 2.08 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 4.52 B.
 2017 2018 2019 2020 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.590.490.560.82
Interest Coverage240.03321.54289.39312.24

Lennar implied volatility may change after the rise

Latest expected short fall is at -2.24. Lennar currently demonstrates below-verage downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.1 and Jensen Alpha of 0.31. However, we do advice investors to further question Lennar expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk.

Our Conclusion on Lennar

Whereas other companies under the residential construction industry are still a bit expensive, Lennar may offer a potential longer-term growth to institutional investors. To conclude, as of the 13th of September 2020, our analysis shows that Lennar barely shadows the market. The company is overvalued and projects below average odds of financial distress for the next 2 years. However, our ongoing 30 days buy-or-sell advice on the company is Buy.

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Editorial Staff

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