Should you buy more of Lennar (NYSE:LEN) based on latest volatility?

24% of stocks are less volatile than Lennar, and above 99% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 60 days. As many old-fashioned traders are trying to avoid consumer cyclical space, it makes sense to outline Lennar a little further and try to understand its current volatility patterns. We will cover the possibilities of Lennar's current volatility to continue through January. Lennar's low volatility may still impact the value of the stock as we estimate it as currently fairly valued. The real value, based on our analysis, is getting close to 74.77 per share.
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Raphi Shpitalnik

Lennar has roughly 1.99 B in cash with 4.08 B of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.37.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Lennar or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Lennar may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Lennar's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Lennar and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Lennar fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is Lennar's Liquidity

Lennar financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Lennar ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Lennar financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Lennar's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Lennar's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Lennar's total debt and its cash.

Lennar Gross Profit

Lennar Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Lennar previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Lennar Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Lennar's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Lennar Volatility Drivers

Lennar unsystematic risk is unique to Lennar and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in Lennar you can also buy PulteGroup. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the consumer discretionary sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing Lennar important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in Lennar income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about Lennar volatility.
-0.530.920.730.91-0.750.990.780.940.81-0.41-0.41-0.570.36-0.21-0.6-0.360.950.01-0.070.2-0.680.79
-0.53-0.190.06-0.380.83-0.61-0.8-0.68-0.680.290.290.48-0.8-0.180.420.47-0.650.280.0-0.30.830.0
0.92-0.190.860.84-0.540.880.560.780.63-0.27-0.27-0.40.07-0.39-0.44-0.160.810.08-0.010.18-0.380.94
0.730.060.860.74-0.160.660.260.60.57-0.14-0.14-0.230.07-0.41-0.410.090.65-0.050.00.11-0.190.89
0.91-0.380.840.74-0.560.90.610.850.75-0.61-0.61-0.660.32-0.02-0.73-0.450.850.13-0.26-0.07-0.710.69
-0.750.83-0.54-0.16-0.56-0.8-0.92-0.75-0.640.380.380.51-0.480.070.440.43-0.730.08-0.07-0.330.71-0.29
0.99-0.610.880.660.9-0.80.810.960.85-0.46-0.46-0.640.43-0.14-0.63-0.430.96-0.03-0.110.16-0.750.73
0.78-0.80.560.260.61-0.920.810.740.63-0.32-0.32-0.480.47-0.08-0.39-0.420.730.030.070.32-0.70.35
0.94-0.680.780.60.85-0.750.960.740.93-0.41-0.41-0.590.53-0.11-0.71-0.410.98-0.1-0.110.19-0.790.64
0.81-0.680.630.570.75-0.640.850.630.93-0.34-0.34-0.570.7-0.02-0.68-0.360.92-0.34-0.140.14-0.780.52
-0.410.29-0.27-0.14-0.610.38-0.46-0.32-0.41-0.341.00.88-0.25-0.610.660.77-0.37-0.220.650.580.69-0.07
-0.410.29-0.27-0.14-0.610.38-0.46-0.32-0.41-0.341.00.88-0.25-0.610.660.77-0.37-0.220.650.580.69-0.07
-0.570.48-0.4-0.23-0.660.51-0.64-0.48-0.59-0.570.880.88-0.47-0.560.560.89-0.57-0.030.750.540.83-0.25
0.36-0.80.070.070.32-0.480.430.470.530.7-0.25-0.25-0.470.23-0.35-0.330.54-0.56-0.150.14-0.730.0
-0.21-0.18-0.39-0.41-0.020.07-0.14-0.08-0.11-0.02-0.61-0.61-0.560.23-0.13-0.69-0.17-0.1-0.63-0.63-0.44-0.45
-0.60.42-0.44-0.41-0.730.44-0.63-0.39-0.71-0.680.660.660.56-0.35-0.130.38-0.67-0.180.220.120.67-0.26
-0.360.47-0.160.09-0.450.43-0.43-0.42-0.41-0.360.770.770.89-0.33-0.690.38-0.35-0.210.80.60.77-0.01
0.95-0.650.810.650.85-0.730.960.730.980.92-0.37-0.37-0.570.54-0.17-0.67-0.35-0.13-0.070.23-0.750.71
0.010.280.08-0.050.130.08-0.030.03-0.1-0.34-0.22-0.22-0.03-0.56-0.1-0.18-0.21-0.13-0.23-0.310.110.01
-0.070.0-0.010.0-0.26-0.07-0.110.07-0.11-0.140.650.650.75-0.15-0.630.220.8-0.07-0.230.90.420.01
0.2-0.30.180.11-0.07-0.330.160.320.190.140.580.580.540.14-0.630.120.60.23-0.310.90.130.19
-0.680.83-0.38-0.19-0.710.71-0.75-0.7-0.79-0.780.690.690.83-0.73-0.440.670.77-0.750.110.420.13-0.19
0.790.00.940.890.69-0.290.730.350.640.52-0.07-0.07-0.250.0-0.45-0.26-0.010.710.010.010.19-0.19
Click cells to compare fundamentals

What is driving Lennar Investor Appetite?

The entity reported the last year's revenue of 22.63 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 2.23 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 4.52 B.
 2017 2018 2019 2020 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.590.490.560.82
Interest Coverage240.03321.54289.39312.24

Analysis of Lennar

Latest variance is at 8.46. As of the 15th of December 2020, Lennar secures the mean deviation of 2.26, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.001501). In connection with fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model lets you check existing technical drivers of Lennar, as well as the relationship between them. Strictly speaking, you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of past prices, or the prices will eventually revert. We were able to analyze nineteen technical drivers for Lennar, which can be compared to its peers in the industry. Please verify Lennar standard deviation, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the Maximum Drawdown and expected short fall to decide if Lennar is priced some-what accurately, providing market reflects its recent price of 72.76 per share. Given that Lennar has jensen alpha of 0.0126, we recommend you to check Lennar's last-minute market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

Our Final Perspective on Lennar

Whereas few other entities in the residential construction industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Lennar may not be performing as strong as the other in terms of long-term growth potentials. With a relatively neutral outlook on the latest economy, it is better to hold off any trading of Lennar as the current risk-reward utility is not appealing enough. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Lennar.

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Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Gabriel Shpitalnik do not own shares of Lennar. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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