Movado Stock Story


USD 36.84  0.92  2.56%   

Movado is generating negative expected returns assuming volatility of 3.2734% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. While some risk-loving traders are indifferent towards current market volatility, it is reasonable to focus on the risk of investing in Movado Group. We will evaluate if the latest Movado price volatility suggests a bounce in June. Movado's seemingly stabilizing volatility may still impact the value of the stock as we estimate Movado as currently undervalued. The real value, based on our calculations, is getting close to 40.84 per share.
Published over two months ago
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Will Movado (NYSE:MOV) latest volatility spike continue?

Movado Group has roughly 277.54 M in cash with 130.81 M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 12.19.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Movado or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Movado may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Movado's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Movado and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Movado fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is Movado's Liquidity

Movado financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Movado Group ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Movado financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Please check the breakdown between Movado's total debt and its cash.

How does Movado utilize its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Movado, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Movado is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Movado cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities.
Movado Net Cash Flow from Operations is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Movado reported Net Cash Flow from Operations of 130.81 Million in 2021

Movado Volatility Drivers

Movado unsystematic risk is unique to Movado Group and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in Movado you can also buy La-Z-Boy. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the luxury goods sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing Movado important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in Movado income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about Movado volatility.