Is Mid Penn (NASDAQ:MPB) positioned to overcome the current market swings?

Considering the 60-days investment horizon, Mid Penn is expected to generate 1.13 times less return on investment than the market. In addition to that, the company is 2.9 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.03 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The DOW is currently generating roughly 0.1 per unit of volatility. While some risk-loving traders are indifferent towards current market volatility, it is reasonable to go over the risk of investing in Mid Penn Bancorp. We will cover the possibilities of Mid Penn's current volatility to continue through November.
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Gabriel Shpitalnik

Mid Penn Bancorp has roughly 143.99 M in cash with 6.64 M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 17.1.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Mid Penn or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Mid Penn may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Mid's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Mid Penn and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Mid Penn fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is Mid Penn's Liquidity

Mid Penn financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Mid Penn Bancorp ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Mid Penn financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Mid Penn's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Mid Penn's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Mid Penn's total debt and its cash.

Mid Penn Gross Profit

Mid Penn Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Mid Penn previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Mid Penn Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Mid Penn's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Mid Penn Volatility Drivers

Mid Penn unsystematic risk is unique to Mid Penn Bancorp and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in Mid Penn you can also buy Codorus Valley Bancorp. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the financials sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing Mid Penn important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in Mid Penn income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about Mid volatility.
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0.890.570.890.910.860.850.850.870.86-0.26-0.26-0.15-0.08-0.3-0.13-0.230.750.54-0.20.20.150.89
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0.970.860.970.950.940.851.00.90.79-0.38-0.38-0.230.05-0.13-0.14-0.380.80.66-0.33-0.080.450.92
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-0.41-0.28-0.41-0.43-0.37-0.26-0.37-0.38-0.33-0.211.00.910.610.170.88-0.16-0.52-0.39-0.11-0.17-0.43-0.24
-0.24-0.1-0.25-0.25-0.17-0.15-0.22-0.23-0.18-0.110.910.910.690.350.87-0.4-0.36-0.27-0.34-0.3-0.21-0.09
-0.020.21-0.02-0.030.05-0.080.060.05-0.14-0.250.610.610.690.40.81-0.2-0.27-0.26-0.14-0.19-0.040.03
-0.09-0.03-0.09-0.060.06-0.3-0.13-0.13-0.14-0.150.170.170.350.40.41-0.37-0.02-0.04-0.33-0.25-0.080.0
-0.16-0.04-0.16-0.17-0.11-0.13-0.13-0.14-0.21-0.160.880.880.870.810.41-0.34-0.34-0.26-0.26-0.19-0.22-0.03
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0.09-0.480.090.110.070.2-0.08-0.08-0.02-0.01-0.17-0.17-0.3-0.19-0.25-0.190.60.240.150.63-0.260.0
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Click cells to compare fundamentals

Going after Mid Financials

The current indifference towards the small price fluctuations of Mid Penn Bancorp may encourage investors to take a closer look at the firm as it is trading at a share price of 20.05 on slow start in trading volume. The company directors and management did not add any value to Mid Penn Bancorp investors in September. However, most investors can still diversify their portfolios with Mid Penn Bancorp to hedge their inherited risk against high-volatility market scenarios. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days investing horizon is currently 2.85. The current volatility is consistent with the ongoing market swings in September 2020 as well as with Mid Penn Bancorp unsystematic, company-specific events.
 2017 2018 2019 2020 (projected)
Share Based Compensation145 K267 K346 K279.14 K
Net Cash Flow from Operations11.89 M10.98 M7.83 M10.03 M

Mid Penn showing appearance of lower volatility

Current variance is at 52.07. Mid Penn Bancorp is displaying above-average volatility over the selected time horizon. Investors should scrutinize Mid Penn Bancorp independently to ensure intended market timing strategies are aligned with expectations about Mid Penn volatility.

Our Final Take On Mid Penn

Whereas some other companies within the banks—regional industry are still a little expensive, even after the recent corrections, Mid Penn may offer a potential longer-term growth to investors. To summarize, as of the 24th of October 2020, our current 30 days advice on the company is Hold. We believe Mid Penn is overvalued with close to average chance of distress for the next two years.

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Editorial Staff

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