MSC Industrial Story

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MSM -- USA Stock  

USD 82.78  1.29  1.58%

While some traders are getting carried away by overanalyzing industrials space, it is reasonable to summarize MSC Industrial Direct against current market trends. As expected, MSC Industrial is starting to reaffirm its true potential as stakeholders are becoming more and more confident in the future outlook. A great deal of the actions of the company stock price movements has been a reflection of what is happening in the market overall. Steady forward indicators of the company may also denote signals of medium-term gains for MSC Industrial stakeholders. MSC Industrial Direct is scheduled to announce its earnings today. The next earnings report is expected on the 14th of April 2021.
Published over two weeks ago
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Our new technical analysis of MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE:MSM)
The company's average rating is Hold from 10 analysts. Do analysts base this consensus on technical analyses? We know that typical technical analysis utilizes price momentum, patterns, and trends looking at historical prices. It aims to identify signals based on MSC Industrial market sentiment investors' perception of the future value of MSC Industrial. Let us look at a few aspects of MSC Industrial technical analysis.
Using predictive technical analysis, we will analyze different prices and returns patterns and diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MSC Industrial Direct. In general, we focus on analyzing MSC Industrial stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. We also apply predictive analytics to build MSC Industrial's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of MSC Industrial's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for MSC Industrial, we also check how macroeconomic factors affect MSC Industrial price patterns. Please read more on our technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of MSC Industrial's stock price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of MSC Industrial in the context of predictive analytics.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as MSC Industrial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against MSC Industrial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, MSC Industrial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in MSC Industrial Direct.

How does MSC Industrial Stands against Peers?

Analyzing MSC Industrial competition or peers my help you to expand the diversification possibilities of your existing portfolios and to get a better perspective on locking in new positions. Try to analyze the advantages of investing in traded instruments related to MSC Industrial across multiple sectors and thematic ideas. A good competitive analysis can cover a lot of different areas. But what areas to choose depends on who you are. The more exhaustive you are in your analysis, the more effective your competitive analysis will be.
Check out MSC Industrial Competition Details

What do experts say?

Stock analysis is a method for investors and traders to make buying and selling decisions. By studying and evaluating past and current data, investors and traders attempt to gain an edge in the markets by making informed decisions. It is good to see analyst projects for MSC Industrial, but it might be worth checking our own buy vs. sell analysis

Closer look at MSC Industrial Downside Variance

MSC Industrial Direct has current Downside Variance of 4.18. Downside Variance (or DV) is measured by target semi-variance and is termed downside volatility. It is expressed in percentages and therefore allows for rankings in the same way as variance. One way to view downside volatility is the annualized variance of returns below the target.

Downside Variance is the probability-weighted squared below-target returns. The squaring of the below-target returns has the effect of penalizing failures at an exponential rate. This is consistent with observations made on the behavior of individual decision-making under.

Downside Variance 
 = 
SUM(RET DEV)2 
N(ER) 
 = 
4.18
SUM = Summation notation
RET DEV = Actual returns deviation over selected period
N(ER) = Number of points with returns less than expected return for the period
Let's now compare MSC Industrial Downside Variance to its closest peers:
MSM
DXPE
FAST
AIT
AVO
MSM4.17955863745187
DXPE10.34
FAST2.89
AIT2.48
AVO4.4

MSC Industrial may start a bounce back in February

Jensen alpha is down to 0.31. It may denote a possible volatility pull down. MSC Industrial Direct currently demonstrates below-verage downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.16 and Jensen Alpha of 0.31. However, we do advice investors to further question MSC Industrial Direct expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk.

Our Final Takeaway

While other entities under the industrial distribution industry are still a bit expensive, MSC Industrial may offer a potential longer-term growth to stakeholders. While some stakeholders may not share our view, we believe it may be a good time to increase your existing holdings in MSC Industrial as the risk-reward trade off is appealing enough to hold a position. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to MSC Industrial.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Gabriel Shpitalnik do not own shares of MSC Industrial Direct. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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