Vail Resorts Story

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MTN -- USA Stock  

USD 273.02  4.60  1.71%

As many millenniums are trying to avoid consumer cyclical space, it makes sense to outline Vail Resorts a little further and try to understand its current market patterns. As we have suggested previously, Vail Resorts is beginning its slide as institutional investors shift to be more bearish due to the increased sector volatility. The company returns are very sensitive to each other to returns on the market. As market twists, the company is expected to follow. Persistent basic indicators of the company may also entail signals of long-standing gains for Vail Resorts institutional investors. Vail Resorts is scheduled to announce its earnings today. The next earnings report is expected on the 8th of March 2021.
Published over a month ago
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Our latest technical analysis of Vail Resorts (NYSE:MTN)
The company's average rating is Hold from 9 analysts. Do analysts base this consensus on technical analyses? We know that typical technical analysis utilizes price momentum, patterns, and trends looking at historical prices. It aims to identify signals based on Vail Resorts market sentiment investors' perception of the future value of Vail Resorts. Let us look at a few aspects of Vail Resorts technical analysis. About 105.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. Vail Resorts has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 115.74. The entity last dividend was issued on the 25th of March 2020. The firm had 1:1 split on the 6th of November 2008.
Using predictive technical analysis, we will analyze different prices and returns patterns and diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vail Resorts. In general, we focus on analyzing Vail Resorts stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. We also apply predictive analytics to build Vail Resorts's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Vail Resorts's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for Vail Resorts, we also check how macroeconomic factors affect Vail Resorts price patterns. Please read more on our technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vail Resorts' stock price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Vail Resorts in the context of predictive analytics.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vail Resorts. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vail Resorts' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vail Resorts' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Vail Resorts.

How does Vail Resorts Stands against Peers?

Analyzing Vail Resorts competition or peers my help you to expand the diversification possibilities of your existing portfolios and to get a better perspective on locking in new positions. Try to analyze the advantages of investing in traded instruments related to Vail Resorts across multiple sectors and thematic ideas. A good competitive analysis can cover a lot of different areas. But what areas to choose depends on who you are. The more exhaustive you are in your analysis, the more effective your competitive analysis will be.
Check out Vail Resorts Competition Details

What do experts say?

Stock analysis is a method for investors and traders to make buying and selling decisions. By studying and evaluating past and current data, investors and traders attempt to gain an edge in the markets by making informed decisions. It is good to see analyst projects for Vail Resorts, but it might be worth checking our own buy vs. sell analysis

Payment of 820 shares by Odonnell James C of Vail Resorts subject to Rule 16b-3

Legal trades by Vail Resorts insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Vail Resorts insider trading alert for payment of common stock by Odonnell James C, EVP Hospitality Retail & RE, on 21st of January 2021. This event was filed by Vail Resorts Inc with SEC on 2020-10-01. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Closer look at Vail Resorts Variance

Vail Resorts has current Variance of 5.63. Variance is another measure of security risk that shows the amount of dispersion of equity returns around their mean value. Variance is calculated as the average squared deviations from the mean. Evaluating a set of investment alternatives one can use variance to help determine the volatility when purchasing a specific security. Similar to Standard Deviation, the variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out around its mean.

Variance is also a measure of stock volatility and can help determine the risk an investor might take on when purchasing a specific security. A relatively big variance indicates that the daily prices or returns are far from the mean and a small variance indicates that they are located around the mean.

Variance 
 = 
SUM(RET DEV)2 
 = 
5.63
SUM = Summation notation
RET DEV = Actual returns deviation over selected period
N = Number of points for the period
Let's now compare Vail Resorts Variance to its closest peers:
MTN
BVH
BXG
BYD
CZR
MTN5.627421119066247
BVH32.57
BXG11.59
BYD6.1
CZR15.93

Vail Resorts has a small chance to finish above $292 in 2 months

Latest mean deviation is at 1.76. As of the 10th of December, Vail Resorts has the Coefficient Of Variation of 540.38, semi deviation of 1.55, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2255. In relation to fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model makes it possible for you to check existing technical drivers of Vail Resorts, as well as the relationship between them. In other words, you can use this information to find out if the company will indeed mirror its model of past prices and volume data, or the prices will eventually revert. We were able to analyze nineteen technical drivers for Vail Resorts, which can be compared to its competition. Please validate Vail Resorts downside deviation, jensen alpha, as well as the relationship between the Jensen Alpha and downside variance to decide if Vail Resorts is priced more or less accurately, providing market reflects its prevalent price of 286.25 per share. Given that Vail Resorts has jensen alpha of 0.3279, we advise you to double-check Vail Resorts's current market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

Whereas some firms under the resorts & casinos industry are still a bit expensive, Vail Resorts may offer a potential longer-term growth to institutional investors. To conclude, as of the 10th of December 2020, we see that Vail Resorts almost mirrors the market. The company is fairly valued with low odds of distress within the next 24 months. Our ongoing 30 days buy-hold-sell recommendation on the company is Strong Buy.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Achuva Shats do not own shares of Vail Resorts. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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