Netflix Stock Story

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Raphi Shpitalnik .  Story
NFLX
 Stock
  

USD 233.49  6.71  2.96%   

By Raphi Shpitalnik
Macroaxis Story
Let's try to break down what's happening with Netflix amid unprecedented political, and economic uncertainty. Netflix is now traded for 201.63. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.24. The average price elasticity to hype of competition is about -0.09. The firm is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 200.33. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is way over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.22%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.11 percent. The volatility of related hype on Netflix is about 516.5% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 201.54 Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 11 days.
Published over two weeks ago
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Is Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) losing trust from investors?

Netflix's average rating is Buy from 28 analysts.
Macroaxis provides trade recommendations on Netflix to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Netflix. Our advice engine determines the firm's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon.
The successful prediction of Netflix stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Netflix, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Netflix based on Netflix hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Netflix's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Netflix's related companies.

Use Technical Analysis to project Netflix expected Price

Netflix technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
Overlap Analysis
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Forecast Models
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Price Shifting
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Volatility Indicators
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Value Movement
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A focus of Netflix technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Netflix trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...

What do experts say?

Stock analysis is a method for investors and traders to make buying and selling decisions. By studying and evaluating past and current data, investors and traders attempt to gain an edge in the markets by making informed decisions.
It is good to see analyst projects for Netflix, but it might be worth checking our own buy vs. sell analysis

Acquisition by Jay Hoag of 277 shares of Netflix subject to Rule 16b-3

Legal trades by Netflix insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Netflix insider trading alert for grant of non-qualified stock option (right to buy) by Jay Hoag, the corporate stakeholder, on 3rd of August 2022. This event was filed by Netflix Inc with SEC on 2022-08-03. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

An Additional Perspective On Netflix

The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 30.4 B. Net Income was 5.01 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 12.37 B.
 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Accounts Payable656.18 M837.48 M903.6 M
Receivables610.82 M804.32 M885.37 M

Deferred Revenue Breakdown

Netflix Deferred Revenue yearly trend continues to be fairly stable with very little volatility. Deferred Revenue is likely to outpace its year average in 2022. Deferred Revenue usually refers to a component of Total Liabilities representing the carrying amount of consideration received or receivable on potential earnings that were not recognized as revenue; including sales; license fees; and royalties; but excluding interest income. Netflix Deferred Revenue is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Netflix reported Deferred Revenue of 1.29 Billion in 2021
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2015346.72 Million
2016443.47 Million
2017618.62 Million
2018760.9 Million
2019924.75 Million
20201.12 Billion
20211.29 Billion
20221.39 Billion

Our take on today Netflix rise

Netflix current standard deviation rises over 5.77. Netflix exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -3.21 and kurtosis of 18.74. However, we advise investors to further study Netflix technical indicators to make sure all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Netflix's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Netflix's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Netflix Implied Volatility

Netflix's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Netflix stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Netflix's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Netflix stock will not fluctuate a lot when Netflix's options are near their expiration.

Our Bottom Line On Netflix

While some companies in the entertainment industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Netflix may not be as strong as the others in terms of longer-term growth potentials. With a somewhat neutral outlook on your 90 days horizon, it may be better to hold off any trading activity and neither pick up new shares of Netflix nor sell your existing holdings in the Stock. It seems the expected volatility has not yet been fully factored into the current price. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Netflix.

Editorial Staff

Raphi Shpitalnik is a Junior Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board. Raphael is a young entrepreneur who joined Macroaxis on a part-time base at the beginning of the pandemic and eventually acquired a real test for investing and fintech. He likes to analyze different equity instruments across a wide range of industries, focusing primarily on consumer products, sports, fintech, cannabis, and AI. View Profile
This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of Netflix. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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