Our latest forecast of Nicolet (USA Stocks:NIC)

As the saying goes, "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." This seems to be the case with Nicolet Bankshares (USA Stocks: NIC), a regional bank whose impressive price surge has left many investors scratching their heads. With a 52-week high of $84.94 and a current market valuation of $77.45, the bank's performance has been nothing short of remarkable. The estimated EPS for the next year stands at $6.51, a figure that suggests strong future performance. However, with a Wall Street target price of $85.6 and a possible downside price of $71.98, the mystery behind Nicolet Bankshares' price surge is one that warrants a closer look. Currently, Nicolet Bankshares' Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) is projected to see a significant increase, based on the company's financial reports from the past few years. The Earnings Before Tax (EBT) for the current year is anticipated to grow to approximately $156 million. However, the Net Income Per Employee is expected to decrease to roughly $72.4 thousand. The primary purpose of this article is to provide our perspective on Nicolet Bankshares for February. We aim to forecast the value of Nicolet Bankshares for its shareholders.
Published over six months ago
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Reviewed by Rifka Kats

Nicolet Bankshares is currently undervalued at $80.65 per share, with modest growth projections on the horizon. Approximately 13.0% of the company's outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The term 'insider ownership' in the context of Nicolet Bankshares refers to the proportion of the company's equity owned by its officers, directors, relatives of the leadership team, or anyone who has access to non-public information. For our latest analysis of Nicolet, including its current ownership structure, please refer to our ownership diagnostics.

Top Findings

Nicolet Bankshares' (USA Stocks: NIC) recent surge in price to a 52-week high of 84.94 has caught the attention of many investors, marking a significant growth from its 52-week low of 51.22. The company's forecasted EPS (Earnings per Share) for the current year is an impressive 4.03, indicating a healthy financial outlook. However, potential investors should be wary of the company's total risk alpha of -0.38, indicating a potential for loss in case of significant market volatility. Despite this, the stock's coefficient of variation at 1.4K suggests that the return on investment could be substantial, outweighing the risk. The impressive surge in Nicolet Bankshares' price, coupled with its strong EPS forecast, makes it a viable investment option, provided investors are prepared for potential risks.
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nicolet Bankshares. Regardless of method or technology, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Predictive Modules for Nicolet Bankshares


How important is Nicolet Bankshares's Liquidity

Nicolet Bankshares financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Nicolet Bankshares ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Nicolet Bankshares financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Nicolet Bankshares' owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Nicolet Bankshares' financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Nicolet Bankshares's total debt and its cash.

Nicolet Bankshares Gross Profit

Nicolet Bankshares Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Nicolet Bankshares previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Nicolet Bankshares Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Nicolet Bankshares' gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Breaking down the case for Nicolet Bankshares

The modest gains experienced by current holders of Nicolet Bankshares may encourage shareholders to take a closer look at the firm as it is trading at a share price of 77.45 on very low momentum in trading volume. The company directors and management have been quite successful in maneuvering the stock at opportune times to take advantage of all market conditions in December. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 90 days investing horizon is currently 2.13. The current volatility is consistent with the ongoing market swings in December 2023 as well as with Nicolet Bankshares unsystematic, company-specific events.

Returns Breakdown

Return on Assets0.0142
Return on Equity0.0961
Return Capital0.0201
Return on Sales0.48
"Buy on the rumor, sell on the news" is a well-known adage in the financial world, and it seems to be playing out with Nicolet Bankshares (USA Stocks: NIC). The bank's stock has seen an impressive surge, reaching a 52-week high of $84.94, driven by strong fundamentals and positive market sentiment.
The company's net income stands at $58.46 million, with a healthy payout ratio of 10.89%, indicating a sustainable dividend policy. The bank's risk-adjusted performance of 0.0534 and a beta of 0.77 suggest a relatively stable investment with less volatility compared to the broader market. Furthermore, Nicolet Bankshares' strong cash flow from operations, amounting to $100.25 million, provides a solid foundation for future growth. However, investors should be aware of the bank's total debt of $542.34 million. Despite this, Wall Street's target price of $85.6 suggests potential upside, making Nicolet Bankshares a stock to watch. .

Nicolet Bankshares has a fair chance to close above $76 mark in February

Nicolet Bankshares Inc. (NCBS) has been demonstrating encouraging signs in the market, despite a minor increase in its Sortino ratio to -0.01. This ratio, a measure of the risk-adjusted return of an investment, suggests a marginally elevated risk level. However, considering the bank's solid financial health and strong market position, it is anticipated that the stock has a reasonable chance to close above the $76 mark in February. Investors are advised to monitor this stock closely as it maneuvers through the current market volatility. As of January 14, 2024, Nicolet Bankshares has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0534, a downside deviation of 1.74, and a Mean Deviation of 1.56. In relation to fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model allows you to examine existing technical drivers of Nicolet Bankshares, as well as their interrelationships. In strict terms, this information can be used to determine if the company will accurately reflect its model of past prices, or if the prices will eventually revert. We have managed to collect and analyze data for nineteen technical drivers for Nicolet Bankshares, which can be compared to its industry peers.
Please verify Nicolet Bankshares' coefficient of variation, maximum drawdown, skewness, as well as the relationship between the information ratio and downside variance to decide if Nicolet Bankshares is somewhat accurately priced, reflecting its recent price of $77.45 per share. Given that Nicolet Bankshares has a Jensen Alpha of -0.14, we recommend you to check Nicolet Bankshares's latest market performance to ensure the company can sustain itself in the future. In conclusion, the recent price surge of Nicolet Bankshares (USA Stocks:NIC) is indeed puzzling. The company's valuation market value stands at $77.45, slightly below the valuation hype value of $77.43. This discrepancy, coupled with the analyst overall consensus of 'Hold' and the fact that there are only 1 strong buy recommendation against 2 holds, suggests that the market may be overvaluing the stock. Furthermore, the possible downside price of $71.98 is significantly lower than the naive expected forecast value of $74.11. While the analyst target price estimated value is $85.333, the highest and lowest estimated target prices are $90 and $81 respectively, indicating a potential upside. However, investors should tread carefully given the current market dynamics and the fiscal year end in December. .

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Editorial Staff

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