NAPCO Story

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NSSC -- USA Stock  

USD 28.87  0.12  0.42%

Macroaxis News
By Raphi Shpitalnik  
Macroaxis Story
As many millenniums are trying to avoid industrials space, it makes sense to go over NAPCO Security a little further and try to understand its current market patterns. As expected, NAPCO Security is starting to reaffirm its true potential as investors are becoming more and more confident in the future outlook. The returns on the market and returns on NAPCO Security appear slightly correlated for the last few months. The appearance of strong basic indicators of the company suggests a short-term price swing for investors of NAPCO. NAPCO Security is scheduled to announce its earnings today. The next earnings report is expected on the 2nd of November 2020.
Published over three months ago
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Should you take up NAPCO Security (NASDAQ:NSSC) based on current technical indicators?
This firm's average rating is Strong Buy from 3 analysts. Do analysts base this consensus on technical analyses? We know that typical technical analysis utilizes price momentum, patterns, and trends looking at historical prices. It aims to identify signals based on NAPCO Security market sentiment investors' perception of the future value of NAPCO. Let us look at a few aspects of NAPCO technical analysis.
Using predictive technical analysis, we will analyze different prices and returns patterns and diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NAPCO Security. In general, we focus on analyzing NAPCO Security stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. We also apply predictive analytics to build NAPCO Security's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of NAPCO Security's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for NAPCO Security, we also check how macroeconomic factors affect NAPCO Security price patterns. Please read more on our technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of NAPCO Security's stock price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of NAPCO Security in the context of predictive analytics.
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Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as NAPCO Security. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against NAPCO Security's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, NAPCO Security's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in NAPCO Security.

How does NAPCO Stands against Peers?

Analyzing NAPCO Security competition or peers my help you to expand the diversification possibilities of your existing portfolios and to get a better perspective on locking in new positions. Try to analyze the advantages of investing in traded instruments related to NAPCO Security across multiple sectors and thematic ideas. A good competitive analysis can cover a lot of different areas. But what areas to choose depends on who you are. The more exhaustive you are in your analysis, the more effective your competitive analysis will be.
Check out NAPCO Security Competition Details

How NAPCO utilizes its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of NAPCO Security, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash NAPCO Security is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The NAPCO Security cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities. NAPCO Security Net Cash Flow from Operations is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Net Cash Flow from Operations was at 11.85 Million

Sale by Richard Soloway of 334961 shares of NAPCO Security

Legal trades by NAPCO Security insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
NAPCO insider trading alert for sale of common stock by Richard Soloway, President CEO and Secretary, on 23rd of December 2020. This event was filed by Napco Security Technologi with SEC on 2020-12-23. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4. Richard Soloway currently serves as chairman, ceo and president and secretary of NAPCO Security [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

A Deeper look at NAPCO

The company has a beta of 0.8482. Let's try to break down what NAPCO's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, NAPCO Security will likely underperform. The beta indicator helps investors understand whether NAPCO Security moves in the same direction as the rest of the market, and how volatile (i.e., risky) it is compared to the market (i.e., selected benchmark). In other words, if NAPCO deviates very little from the market, it does not add much risk to the portfolio, but it also doesn't increase the expected returns. The small slip in market price for the last few months may encourage investors to take a closer look at the entity as it closed today at a share price of 22.57 on 73,969 in trading volume. The company management teams did not add much value to NAPCO Security investors in August. However, diversifying your holdings with NAPCO Security or similar stocks can still protect your portfolio during high-volatility market scenarios. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days investing horizon is currently 2.9. The current volatility is consistent with the ongoing market swings in August 2020 as well as with NAPCO Security unsystematic, company-specific events.

Momentum Analysis of NAPCO Security suggests possible reversal in October

Current coefficient of variation indicator falls down to -4224.88. Possible price jump? As of the 8th of September, NAPCO Security secures the mean deviation of 2.26, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.08). In connection with fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model lets you check helpful technical drivers of NAPCO Security, as well as the relationship between them. Strictly speaking, you can use this information to find out if the entity will indeed mirror its model of past prices, or the prices will eventually revert. We were able to break down and interpolate data for nineteen technical drivers for NAPCO Security, which can be compared to its peers in the industry. Please verify NAPCO Security variance, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the Maximum Drawdown and semi variance to decide if NAPCO Security is priced fairly, providing market reflects its recent price of 23.25 per share. Given that NAPCO Security has jensen alpha of (0.17), we recommend you to check NAPCO Security's last-minute market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself in the future.

Our Final Perspective on NAPCO Security

Whereas some other firms under the security & protection services industry are still a bit expensive, NAPCO Security may offer a potential longer-term growth to investors. To conclude, as of the 8th of September 2020, we believe that at this point, NAPCO Security is not too volatile with very small probability of bankruptcy within the next 2 years. From a slightly different point of view, the entity appears to be undervalued. Our concluding 30 days buy vs. sell advice on the company is Strong Hold.

About Contributor

Raphi Shpitalnik is a Junior Member of Macroaxs Editorial Board. Raphael is a young entrepreneur who joined Macroaxis on a part-time base at the beginning of the pandemic and eventually acquired a real test for investing and fintech. He likes to analyze different equity instruments across a wide range of industries, focusing primarily on consumer products, sports, fintech, cannabis, and AI. View Profile
This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of NAPCO Security. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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