Napco Story

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NSSC -- USA Stock  

USD 33.14  0.60  1.84%

In general, we focus on analyzing NAPCO (NASDAQ:NSSC) price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. We also apply predictive analytics to build NAPCO Security daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers. Let's try to go over what's happening with NAPCO Security amid unprecedented political, and economic uncertainty.
Published over three weeks ago
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Do you have a personal attachment to NAPCO Security?
The firm secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.2873, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. Let's try to break down what NAPCO's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning NAPCO Security are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, NAPCO Security is likely to outperform the market. Even though it is essential to pay attention to NAPCO Security price patterns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity historical price patterns. Our way of estimating any stock's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. NAPCO Security exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance. NAPCO Security has an expected return of -0.0756%. Please be advised to verify NAPCO Security variance, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the Maximum Drawdown and semi variance to decide if NAPCO Security stock performance from the past will be repeated in the future.
The successful prediction of Napco Sec stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Napco Sec Tech, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Napco Sec based on Napco Sec hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Napco Sec's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Napco Sec's related companies.

Use Technical Analysis to project Napco expected Price

Napco Sec technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Napco Sec technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Napco Sec trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...

How Napco utilizes its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Napco Sec, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Napco Sec is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Napco Sec cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities.
Napco Sec Net Cash Flow from Operations is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Net Cash Flow from Operations was at 11.85 Million

Sale by Michael Carrieri of 5834 shares of Napco Sec

Legal trades by Napco Sec insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Napco insider trading alert for sale of napco security technologies inc. common stock by Michael Carrieri, Senior Vice President, on 2nd of March 2021. This event was filed by Napco Security Technologi with SEC on 2021-03-02. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Another Deeper Perspective

This firm reported the previous year's revenue of 98.25 M. Net Income was 7.61 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 43.59 M.

Cost of Revenue Breakdown

NAPCO Security Cost of Revenue is increasing over the years with slightly volatile fluctuation. Cost of Revenue is expected to dwindle to about 65.6 M. Cost of Revenue usually refers to the aggregate cost of goods produced and sold and services rendered during the reporting period. NAPCO Security Cost of Revenue is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Cost of Revenue was at 66.43 Million
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
201451.72 Million
201554.93 Million
201651.07 Million
201753.75 Million
201859.04 Million
201957.77 Million
202066.43 Million
202165.64 Million

Momentum Analysis of NAPCO Security suggests possible reversal in March

The jensen alpha is down to 0.15 as of today. As of the 7th of February, NAPCO Security secures the Downside Deviation of 3.38, mean deviation of 1.76, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.41). In connection with fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model lets you check helpful technical drivers of NAPCO Security, as well as the relationship between them. Strictly speaking, you can use this information to find out if the entity will indeed mirror its model of past prices, or the prices will eventually revert. We were able to break down and interpolate data for nineteen technical drivers for NAPCO Security, which can be compared to its peers in the industry. Please verify NAPCO Security variance, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the Maximum Drawdown and semi variance to decide if NAPCO Security is priced fairly, providing market reflects its recent price of 26.42 per share. Given that NAPCO Security has jensen alpha of 0.1483, we recommend you to check NAPCO Security's last-minute market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself in the future.

Our Conclusion on NAPCO Security

Whereas other companies in the security & protection services industry are either recovering or due for a correction, NAPCO Security may not be performing as strong as the other in terms of long-term growth potentials. To conclude, as of the 7th of February 2021, our analysis shows that NAPCO Security almost neglects market trends. The company is undervalued and projects very small probability of financial unrest for the next 2 years. Our primary 30 days 'Buy-Sell' recommendation on the company is Cautious Hold.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of Napco Sec Tech. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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