Our recent forecast of Northwest (USA Stocks:NWN)

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NWN Stock  USD 46.41  1.51  3.36%   
Rifka Kats
By Rifka Kats
Macroaxis Story
Northwest Natural Accrued Expenses Turnover is very stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Northwest Natural reported last year Accrued Expenses Turnover of 44.70. As of 24th of February 2023, Cash and Equivalents Turnover is likely to grow to 41.68, while Net Income Per Employee is likely to drop about 66.6 K. The essential rationale for this perspective is to break down our current position on Northwest for insiders considering to short it. We will focus on why Northwest Natural insiders may still consider a stake in the business.
Published over three weeks ago
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Reviewed by Raphi Shpitalnik

Northwest Natural is UNDERVALUED at 52.06 per share with modest projections ahead. Over 79.0% of Northwest Natural shares are owned by institutional investors. Institutional ownership of Northwest Natural Gas refers to the amount of Northwest Natural Gas equity owned by mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, investment firms, foundations, or other large entities that manage money on behalf of others. Check out our latest analysis of Northwest, including its current ownership diagnostics.
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northwest Natural Gas. Regardless of method or technology, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Predictive Modules for Northwest Natural

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Northwest Natural's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Northwest Natural in the context of predictive analytics.
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Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Northwest Natural. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Northwest Natural's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Northwest Natural's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Northwest Natural Gas.

How important is Northwest Natural's Liquidity

Northwest Natural financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Northwest Natural Gas ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Northwest Natural financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Please check the breakdown between Northwest Natural's total debt and its cash.

How does Northwest utilize its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Northwest Natural, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Northwest Natural is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Northwest Natural cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities.
Northwest Natural Net Cash Flow from Operations is very stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Northwest Natural reported last year Net Cash Flow from Operations of 145.19 Million

Payment of 406 shares by David Weber of Northwest Natural subject to Rule 16b-3

Legal trades by Northwest Natural insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Northwest insider trading alert for payment of common stock by David Weber, VP Gas Supply, on 3rd of March 2023. This event was filed by Northwest Natural Holding with SEC on 2023-03-03. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4. David Weber currently serves as vice president - gas supply and utility support services, president, chief executive officer, nw natural gas storage, llc. of Northwest Natural Gas [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Another Outlook On Northwest Natural

Northwest Natural Gas has relatively low volatility with skewness of -0.94 and kurtosis of 1.65. However, we advise all investors to independently investigate Northwest Natural Gas to ensure all accessible information is consistent with the expectations about its upside potential and future expected returns. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Northwest Natural's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Northwest Natural's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Margin Breakdown

Operating Margin21.15
EBITDA Margin0.3
Gross Margin0.44
Profit Margin0.0926

Northwest Natural is estimated to stay under USD49 in March

Downside variance is down to 3.26. It may hint at a possible volatility decline. Northwest Natural Gas has relatively low volatility with skewness of -0.94 and kurtosis of 1.65. However, we advise all investors to independently investigate Northwest Natural Gas to ensure all accessible information is consistent with the expectations about its upside potential and future expected returns. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Northwest Natural's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Northwest Natural's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Our Takeaway on Northwest Natural Investment

Although many of the other players in the utilities—regulated gas industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Northwest Natural may not be performing as strong as the other in terms of long-term growth potentials. To conclude, as of the 24th of February 2023, our research shows that Northwest Natural is a rather very steady investment opportunity with a close to average odds of financial distress in the next two years. From a slightly different view, the entity currently appears to be undervalued. Our concluding 90 days recommendation on the firm is Strong Hold.

Editorial Staff

Rifka Kats is a Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board. Rifka writes about retail product and service companies from the perspective of a regular consumer and sophisticated investor at the same time. She is passionate about corporate ethics and equality in the workforce. View Profile
This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Rifka Kats do not own shares of Northwest Natural Gas. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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