Obalon Story

All StoriesTechnicals
Ellen Johnson Story
<div class='circular--portrait' style='background:#754DEB;color: #F0FFF0;font-size:4em;'>OT</div>
OBLN -- USA Stock  

USD 3.43  0.28  7.55%

Macroaxis News
By Ellen Johnson  
Macroaxis Story
As many millenniums are trying to avoid healthcare space, it makes sense to outline Obalon Therapeutics a little further and try to understand its current market patterns. We are going to address the reasons why we are still confident in anticipation of a recovery. Plenty of the latest Obalon Therapeutics price change was an exact opposite of how the market swinged in the last few months. Conflicting basic indicators of the company may also entail signs of long-standing losses for Obalon institutional investors. The stock is still going through an active upward rally.
Published over a month ago
View all stories for Obalon Therapeutics | View All Stories
Will Obalon Therapeutics (NASDAQ:OBLN) price continue to rise in February?
This firm's average rating is Hold from 1 analysts. Do analysts base this consensus on technical analyses? We know that typical technical analysis utilizes price momentum, patterns, and trends looking at historical prices. It aims to identify signals based on Obalon Therapeutics market sentiment investors' perception of the future value of Obalon. Let us look at a few aspects of Obalon technical analysis.
Using predictive technical analysis, we will analyze different prices and returns patterns and diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Obalon Therapeutics. In general, we focus on analyzing Obalon Therapeutics stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. We also apply predictive analytics to build Obalon Therapeutics's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Obalon Therapeutics's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for Obalon Therapeutics, we also check how macroeconomic factors affect Obalon Therapeutics price patterns. Please read more on our technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Obalon Therapeutics' stock price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Obalon Therapeutics in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
Details
Naive
Forecast
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Obalon Therapeutics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Obalon Therapeutics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Obalon Therapeutics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Obalon Therapeutics.

How does Obalon Stands against Peers?

Analyzing Obalon Therapeutics competition or peers my help you to expand the diversification possibilities of your existing portfolios and to get a better perspective on locking in new positions. Try to analyze the advantages of investing in traded instruments related to Obalon Therapeutics across multiple sectors and thematic ideas. A good competitive analysis can cover a lot of different areas. But what areas to choose depends on who you are. The more exhaustive you are in your analysis, the more effective your competitive analysis will be.
Check out Obalon Therapeutics Competition Details

How Obalon utilizes its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Obalon Therapeutics, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Obalon Therapeutics is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Obalon Therapeutics cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities.
Obalon Therapeutics Net Cash Flow from Operations is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Net Cash Flow from Operations is estimated at (28.37 Million)

Acquisition by William Plovanic of 27250 shares of Obalon Therapeutics subject to Rule 16b-3

Legal trades by Obalon Therapeutics insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Obalon insider trading alert for grant of stock option (right to buy) by William Plovanic, the corporate stakeholder, on 18th of September 2020. This event was filed by Obalon Therapeutics Inc with SEC on 2020-09-18. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Closer look at Obalon Therapeutics Semi Variance

Obalon Therapeutics has current Semi Variance of 42.99. Semi-variance provides a good measure of downside volatility for equity or a portfolio. It is similar to variance, but it only looks at periods where the returns are less than the target or average level.

Semi-variance is the square of semi-deviation. Semi-variance is calculated by averaging the deviations of returns that have a result that is less than the mean.

Semi Variance 
 = 
SUM(RET DEV)2 
N(ZERO) 
 = 
42.99
SUM = Summation notation
RET DEV = Actual return deviation over selected period
N(ZERO) = Number of points with returns less than zero
Let's now compare Obalon Therapeutics Semi Variance to its closest peers:
OBLN
ESTA
EDAP
EYES
ECIA
OBLN42.98567291731186
ESTA2.34
EDAP3.58
EYES35.33
ECIA18.13

Obalon Therapeutics implied volatility may change after the rise

Latest kurtosis is at 53.94. Obalon Therapeutics is showing large volatility of returns over the selected time horizon. We encourage all investors to investigate this asset further to make sure related market timing strategies are aligned with all the expectations about Obalon Therapeutics implied risk.

The Bottom Line

Whereas some companies within the medical devices industry are still a little expensive, even after the recent corrections, Obalon Therapeutics may offer a potential longer-term growth to institutional investors. In closing, as of the 22nd of January 2021, our ongoing 30 days buy-or-sell advice on the company is Strong Sell. We believe Obalon Therapeutics is currently overvalued with below average probability of distress for the next two years.

About Contributor

Ellen Johnson is a Member of Macroaxs Editorial Board. Ellen covers public companies in North America, focusing primarily on valuation and volatility. Six years of experience in predictive investment analytics and risk management. View Profile
This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Ellen Johnson do not own shares of Obalon Therapeutics. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

Would you like to provide feedback on the content of this article?

You can get in touch with us directly or send us a quick note via email to editors@macroaxis.com
Macroaxis helps investors of all levels and skills to maximize the upside of all their holdings and minimize the risk associated with market volatility, economic swings, and company-specific events. View terms and conditions
Macroaxis Wealth Optimization Platform
 
Feedback Blog
Made with optimal in San Francisco
2021 Macroaxis LLC
COMMON DESTINATIONS
MAIN CATEGORIES
COMPANY