OneSpan Story

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OSPN -- USA Stock  

USD 20.31  0.10  0.49%

In general, we focus on analyzing OneSpan (NASDAQ:OSPN) price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. We also apply predictive analytics to build OneSpan daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers. Today's article will outline OneSpan. We will evaluate why we are still confident in anticipation of a recovery.
Published over three months ago
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Chances of OneSpan (NASDAQ:OSPN) to slide in September.
The asset utilization indicator refers to the revenue earned for every dollar of assets a company currently reports. OneSpan has an asset utilization ratio of 328.28 percent. This suggests that the company is making $3.28 for each dollar of assets. An increasing asset utilization means that OneSpan is more efficient with each dollar of assets it utilizes for everyday operations. The company has Profit Margin (PM) of 5.53 %, which can signify that it executes well on its competitive strategies and has good control over its expenditures. This is normal as compared to the sector avarege. Similarly, it shows Operating Margin (OM) of 8.26 %, which suggests for every 100 dollars of sales, it generated a net operating income of 0.08.
The successful prediction of OneSpan stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as OneSpan, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of OneSpan based on OneSpan hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to OneSpan's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to OneSpan's related companies.

Use Technical Analysis to project OneSpan expected Price

OneSpan technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of OneSpan technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of OneSpan trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...

How OneSpan utilizes its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of OneSpan, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash OneSpan is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The OneSpan cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities.

OneSpan exotic insider transaction detected

Legal trades by OneSpan insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
OneSpan insider trading alert for general transaction of performance stock units by Scott Clements, President and CEO, on 4th of August 2020. This event was filed by Onespan Inc with SEC on 2020-08-04. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Going after OneSpan Financials

The latest price rise of OneSpan may encourage institutional investors to take a closer look at the company as it closed today at a share price of 29.64 on 400,693 in trading volume. The company directors and management may have good odds in positioning the company resources to exploit market volatility in September. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days investing horizon is currently 2.68. The current volatility is consistent with the ongoing market swings in July 2020 as well as with OneSpan unsystematic, company-specific events.

Deferred Revenue Breakdown

OneSpan Deferred Revenue yearly trend continues to be quite stable with very little volatility. The value of Deferred Revenue is projected to decrease to about 37.3 M. Deferred Revenue usually refers to a component of Total Liabilities representing the carrying amount of consideration received or receivable on potential earnings that were not recognized as revenue; including sales; license fees; and royalties; but excluding interest income. OneSpan Deferred Revenue is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Deferred Revenue is estimated at 37.33 Million
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
201315.7 Million
201417.83 Million
201522.45 Million
201636.36 Million
201740.31 Million
201844.3 Million
201945.6 Million
202037.33 Million

OneSpan will most likely finish below $31 in 60 days

Latest information ratio is at 0.17. OneSpan currently demonstrates below-verage downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.17 and Jensen Alpha of 0.73. However, we do advice investors to further question OneSpan expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk.

Our Bottom Line On OneSpan

Whereas some other companies in the software?application industry are either recovering or due for a correction, OneSpan may not be as strong as the others in terms of longer-term growth potentials. All things considered, as of the 11th of August 2020, we believe that at this point, OneSpan is overvalued with very small probability of distress within the next 2 years. Our actual buy-or-sell advice on the company is Cautious Hold.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Gabriel Shpitalnik do not own shares of OneSpan. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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