What is October outlook for Progressive (NYSE:PGR) given current volatility levels?

Progressive is generating 0.2659% of daily returns assuming volatility of 1.5002% on return distribution over 60 days investment horizon. Since many greedy investors are excited about financial services space, let's sum up Progressive against its current volatility. We will discuss why some retail investors are closely monitoring Progressive's volatility. Progressive's very low volatility may have no significant impact on the stock's value as we estimate Progressive as currently fairly valued. The real value, based on our calculations, is getting close to 100.07 per share.
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Michael Smolkin

The company has 5.58 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.33, which is OK given its current industry classification. Progressive has a current ratio of 0.44, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Progressive Corp or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Progressive Corp may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Progressive's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Progressive Corp and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Progressive Corp fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is Progressive Corp's Liquidity

Progressive Corp financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Progressive Corp ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Progressive Corp financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Progressive Corp's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Progressive Corp's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Progressive Corp's total debt and its cash.

Progressive Corp Gross Profit

Progressive Corp Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Progressive Corp previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Progressive Corp Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Progressive Corp's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Progressive Corp Volatility Drivers

Progressive Corp unsystematic risk is unique to Progressive Corp and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in Progressive Corp you can also buy The Travelers Companies. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the financials sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing Progressive Corp important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in Progressive Corp income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about Progressive volatility.
0.981.00.310.510.491.01.00.750.290.410.410.82-0.080.230.290.530.88-0.750.260.45-0.250.41
0.980.980.330.480.50.980.980.70.20.420.420.83-0.190.270.350.410.83-0.770.130.37-0.180.42
1.00.980.310.50.491.01.00.740.260.420.420.83-0.090.240.310.510.87-0.750.240.45-0.240.41
0.310.330.310.29-0.190.30.30.240.04-0.22-0.22-0.180.290.680.050.150.29-0.680.150.15-0.690.97
0.510.480.50.290.020.460.460.550.310.240.240.350.02-0.06-0.020.490.56-0.250.470.35-0.130.35
0.490.50.49-0.190.020.520.520.340.11-0.22-0.220.54-0.29-0.2-0.07-0.010.43-0.45-0.2-0.060.230.03
1.00.981.00.30.460.521.00.730.260.40.40.82-0.110.230.280.480.87-0.770.210.43-0.240.4
1.00.981.00.30.460.521.00.730.260.40.40.82-0.110.230.280.480.87-0.770.210.43-0.240.4
0.750.70.740.240.550.340.730.730.810.140.140.55-0.1-0.09-0.270.750.97-0.470.620.35-0.150.31
0.290.20.260.040.310.110.260.260.81-0.1-0.10.160.02-0.25-0.520.790.67-0.010.80.33-0.130.07
0.410.420.42-0.220.24-0.220.40.40.14-0.11.00.66-0.280.110.620.210.220.060.050.340.06-0.3
0.410.420.42-0.220.24-0.220.40.40.14-0.11.00.66-0.280.110.620.210.220.060.050.340.06-0.3
0.820.830.83-0.180.350.540.820.820.550.160.660.66-0.380.020.430.340.67-0.380.070.290.11-0.08
-0.08-0.19-0.090.290.02-0.29-0.11-0.11-0.10.02-0.28-0.28-0.380.14-0.040.3-0.080.020.40.27-0.380.26
0.230.270.240.68-0.06-0.20.230.23-0.09-0.250.110.110.020.140.54-0.030.01-0.48-0.110.11-0.790.63
0.290.350.310.05-0.02-0.070.280.28-0.27-0.520.620.620.43-0.040.54-0.07-0.13-0.09-0.220.34-0.120.04
0.530.410.510.150.49-0.010.480.480.750.790.210.210.340.3-0.03-0.070.7-0.090.950.75-0.320.17
0.880.830.870.290.560.430.870.870.970.670.220.220.67-0.080.01-0.130.7-0.620.520.38-0.210.37
-0.75-0.77-0.75-0.68-0.25-0.45-0.77-0.77-0.47-0.010.060.06-0.380.02-0.48-0.09-0.09-0.620.11-0.070.47-0.75
0.260.130.240.150.47-0.20.210.210.620.80.050.050.070.4-0.11-0.220.950.520.110.67-0.290.15
0.450.370.450.150.35-0.060.430.430.350.330.340.340.290.270.110.340.750.38-0.070.67-0.290.16
-0.25-0.18-0.24-0.69-0.130.23-0.24-0.24-0.15-0.130.060.060.11-0.38-0.79-0.12-0.32-0.210.47-0.29-0.29-0.64
0.410.420.410.970.350.030.40.40.310.07-0.3-0.3-0.080.260.630.040.170.37-0.750.150.16-0.64
Click cells to compare fundamentals

What is driving Progressive Corp Investor Appetite?

The latest bullish price patterns experienced by current Progressive shareholders may encourage retail investors to take a closer look at the company as it is trading at a share price of 96.26 on 1,838,700 in trading volume. The company executives have been very successful in rebalancing the company assets at opportune times to take advantage of market volatility in August. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days investing horizon is currently 1.5. The below-average Stock volatility is a good sign for longer-term investment options and for buy-and-hold investors.
 2017 2018 2019 2020 (projected)
Cost of Revenue18.81 B21.72 B24.98 B21.26 B
Consolidated Income1.6 B2.62 B3.01 B3.25 B

Progressive may start a correction in October

The standard deviation is down to 1.51 as of today. Progressive has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.53 and kurtosis of 1.29. However, we advise all investors to independently investigate Progressive to ensure all accessible information is consistent with the expectations about its upside potential and future expected returns.

Our Conclusion on Progressive

While some companies within the insurance—property & casualty industry are still a little expensive, even after the recent corrections, Progressive may offer a potential longer-term growth to retail investors. While some before the next press release oriented retail investors may not share our view, we believe it may not be a good time to acquire new shares of Progressive.

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Editorial Staff

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