Progressive Story

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PGR -- USA Stock  

USD 94.26  1.80  1.87%

It seems Progressive may not have a good chance to recover from the latest fall as its shares fell again. The company's current daily volatility is 1.77 percent, with a beta of 0.19 and an alpha of 0.0 over DOW. Whilst many millenniums are getting more into investing against high market volatility, it is quite pruden to sum up Progressive based on its historical prices. We will look into some reasons why it is still possible for Progressive to maintain above-average margins while minimizing volatility.
Published over a month ago
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Will Progressive (NYSE:PGR) volatility spike before January
Progressive has roughly 4.76 B in cash with 6.49 B of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.12. The company holds a Beta of 0.1947, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Progressive's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, Progressive returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Progressive will be expected to be smaller as well. Even though it is essential to pay attention to Progressive current trending patterns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity existing price patterns. Our philosophy towards forecasting any stock's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. Progressive exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance. Progressive has an expected return of -0.0012%. Please be advised to check Progressive value at risk, as well as the relationship between the skewness and day median price to decide if Progressive stock performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Investing in Progressive, just like investing in any other equity instrument, is characterized by a strong risk-return correlation. High risks mean high returns and low risk means lower expected returns. Risk management is the act of identifying and assessing the potential risk and developing strategies to minimize these risks and earn maximum possible profits while holding Progressive along with other instruments in the same portfolio. Using conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis to select individual securities into a portfolio complements risk management and adds value to overall investors' investing strategies.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Progressive's stock price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Progressive in the context of predictive analytics.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Progressive. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Progressive's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Progressive's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Progressive.

How important is Progressive's Liquidity

Progressive financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Progressive ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Progressive financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Please check the breakdown between Progressive's total debt and its cash.

What do experts say?

Stock analysis is a method for investors and traders to make buying and selling decisions. By studying and evaluating past and current data, investors and traders attempt to gain an edge in the markets by making informed decisions. It is good to see analyst projects for Progressive, but it might be worth checking our own buy vs. sell analysis

Progressive Correlation with Peers

Investors in Progressive can reduce exposure to individual asset risk by holding a diversified portfolio of assets in addition to a long position in Progressive. Diversification will allow for the same portfolio return with reduced risk. The correlation table of Progressive and its peers is a two-dimensional matrix that shows the correlation coefficient between pairs of securities Progressive is related in some way. The cells in the table are color-coded to highlight significantly positive and negative relationships. Each cell shows the correlation between one pair of equities and can be used to run pair trading strategies or create efficient portfolios with your current brokerage. Please check volatility of Progressive for more details

A Deeper Perspective

Progressive maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e. Efficiency) of -7.0E-4, which implies the firm had -7.0E-4% of return per unit of risk over the last month. Macroaxis standpoint towards forecasting the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Progressive exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to check Progressive Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0265, coefficient of variation of 4914.62, and Semi Deviation of 2.13 to confirm the risk estimate we provide.
Click cells to compare fundamentals   Check Volatility   Backtest Portfolio

Progressive has 54 percent chance to fall below $94 in 30 days

The downside variance is down to 4.92 as of today. Progressive currently demonstrates below-verage downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of -0.05 and Jensen Alpha of 0.0. However, we do advice investors to further question Progressive expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk.

Our Final Take On Progressive

While few other entities in the insurance?property & casualty industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Progressive may not be as strong as the others in terms of longer-term growth potentials. With an impartial outlook on the current market volatility, it may be better to hold off any inventment activity and neither buy nor short any shares of Progressive at this time. The Progressive risk-reward trade off is not appealing enough to do any trading. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Progressive.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Ellen Johnson do not own shares of Progressive. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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