Party Stock Story

PRTY
 Stock
  

USD 1.98  0.26  11.61%   

The stock experiences a very aggressive trading activities. As some conservatives are trying to avoid consumer cyclical space, we'll break down Party City Holdco a little further and explain its current market possibilities. We will evaluate if Party City shares are reasonably priced going into July. The entity current probability of bankruptcy is over 57%. Are Party City investors still optimistic?
Published over two months ago
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Are Party City (NYSE:PRTY) weak basic indicators contributing to the current slide?

The company holds a Beta of 4.0163, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Party's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Party City will likely underperform. Even though it is essential to pay attention to Party City Holdco current trending patterns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity existing price patterns. Our philosophy towards forecasting any stock's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. Party City Holdco exposes twenty-seven different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance. Party City Holdco has an expected return of -0.64%. Please be advised to check Party City Holdco maximum drawdown, skewness, day typical price, as well as the relationship between the downside variance and daily balance of power to decide if Party City Holdco performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Typically, a company's financial statements are the reports that show the financial position of the company. There are three main documents that fall into the category of financial statements. These documents include Party City income statement, its balance sheet, and the statement of cash flows. Potential Party City investors and stakeholders use financial statements to determine how well the company is positioned to perform in the future. Although Party City investors may use each financial statement separately, they are all related. The changes in Party City's assets and liabilities, for example, are also reflected in the revenues and expenses that we see on Party City's income statement, which results in the company's gains or losses. Cash flows can provide more information regarding cash listed on a balance sheet, but not equivalent to net income shown on the income statement. Please read more on our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
The goal of Party City fundamental analysis is to do accurate financial forecasts. There are several possible objectives to fundamental analysis, such as projecting of Party City performance into the future periods or doing a reasonable stock valuation. The intrinsic value of Party City shares is the value that is considered the true value of the share. If the intrinsic value of Party is higher than its market price, buying is generally recommended. If it is equal to the market price, it is recommended to hold; and if it is less than the market price, then one should sell all shares Party City.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.

What is Party Asset Breakdown?

Party City Holdco reports assets on its Balance Sheet. It represents the amount of Party resources that either has an existing economic value or will provide some form of benefits in the future. To get a better handle on how balance sheet or income statements item affect Party volatility, please check the breakdown of all its fundamentals

Are Party City Earnings Expected to grow?

The future earnings power of Party City involves the interaction of many company-specific, industry, and economic forces. Earnings estimates embody investors' opinions of Party City factors such as sales growth, product demand, competitive industry environment, profit margins, and cost controls. Party City stock prices adjust as these expectations change or are proven wrong. The main thing to remember is that equities with high expected earnings growth tend to underperform the market because it is usually difficult to meet the market's high expectations. Companies with low earnings expectations tend to do better than expected. Please use our latest analysis of Party expected earnings.

Party City Gross Profit

Party City Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Party City previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Party City Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years.
Please check Gross Profit in more details.

Payment of 1444 shares by De Mesa Graziano Cheryl of Party City subject to Rule 16b-3

Legal trades by Party City insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Party insider trading alert for payment of common stock par value $0.01 per share ("common stock") by De Mesa Graziano Cheryl, Chief Accounting Officer, on 11th of August 2022. This event was filed by Party City Holdco Inc with SEC on 2022-08-11. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Detailed Perspective On Party City

Many companies such as Party City have both institutions investors and insiders sharing the ownership. Retail investors typically buy and sell stocks in round lots of 100 shares or more. Other other hand institutional investors are known to buy and sell in block trades of 10,000 shares or more. Let's take a look at how the ownership of Party is distributed among investors.

Ownership Allocation

Party City owns a total of one hundred twelve million two hundred twenty thousand outstanding shares. The majority of Party City Holdco outstanding shares are owned by third-party entities. These institutional holders are usually referred to as non-private investors looking to secure positions in Party City Holdco to benefit from reduced commissions. Consequently, institutional investors are subject to a different set of regulations than regular investors in Party City. Please pay attention to any change in the institutional holdings of Party City Holdco as this could imply that something significant has changed or about to change at the company. Please note that no matter how much assets the company maintains, if the real value of the company is less than the current market value, you may not be able to make money on it.


Retail Investors
20.91%
Insiders
5.91%
Institutions
73.18%
Retail Investors20.91
Insiders5.91
Institutions73.18

Party City price slide is misleading

Current Information Ratio is up to -0.1. Price may slide again. Party City Holdco is displaying above-average volatility over the selected time horizon. Investors should scrutinize Party City Holdco independently to ensure intended market timing strategies are aligned with expectations about Party City volatility. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Party City's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Party City's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Party City Implied Volatility

Party City's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Party City Holdco stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Party City's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Party City stock will not fluctuate a lot when Party City's options are near their expiration.

The Bottom Line

While some firms in the specialty retail industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Party may not be as strong as the others in terms of longer-term growth potentials. The inconsistency in the assessment between current Party valuation and our trade advice on Party City is due to the recent market swings and your selection of investing horizon. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Party City.

Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of Party City Holdco. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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