Are you really shorting REV (NYSE:REVG) based on its volatility?

25% of stocks are less volatile than REV, and 98% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon. While some of us are excited about industrials space, it makes sense to digest REV in greater detail to make a better estimate of its risk and reward. We will cover the possibilities of REV's current volatility to continue through February.
Published over a year ago
View all stories for Rev | View All Stories
Macroaxis uses a strict editorial review process to publish stories and blog posts. Our publishers support our company and may receive a small commission when the partner links or references are utilized. Commissions do not affect the opinions or evaluations of our editorial team. The information our editors and media partners deliver is confidential and licensed for your sole use as a Macroaxis user. We reserve all rights to the content of this article, and therefore copying or distributing this story in whole or in part is strictly prohibited.

Reviewed by Ellen Johnson

REV Group currently holds roughly 17.3 M in cash with 55.5 M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.27.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Rev or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Rev may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Rev's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Rev and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Rev fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is Rev's Liquidity

Rev financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Rev Group ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Rev financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Rev's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Rev's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Rev's total debt and its cash.

Rev Gross Profit

Rev Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Rev previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Rev Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Rev's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Rev Volatility Drivers

Rev unsystematic risk is unique to Rev Group and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in Rev you can also buy Lindsay. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the industrials sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing Rev important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in Rev income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about Rev volatility.
0.340.980.98-0.89-0.330.940.910.1-0.38-0.96-0.96-0.94-0.640.02-0.41-0.50.8-0.24-0.66-0.58-0.71-0.83
0.340.380.33-0.39-0.040.220.12-0.6-0.86-0.45-0.45-0.4-0.30.04-0.210.03-0.01-0.490.17-0.620.32-0.59
0.980.380.95-0.84-0.30.910.860.04-0.44-0.97-0.97-0.96-0.610.02-0.39-0.430.76-0.29-0.66-0.59-0.71-0.88
0.980.330.95-0.86-0.350.920.870.09-0.41-0.91-0.91-0.93-0.60.03-0.38-0.50.73-0.25-0.71-0.54-0.66-0.85
-0.89-0.39-0.84-0.860.26-0.87-0.87-0.090.320.890.890.840.73-0.090.440.73-0.810.270.640.680.520.72
-0.33-0.04-0.3-0.350.26-0.34-0.32-0.5-0.170.140.140.130.18-0.010.12-0.18-0.12-0.110.010.020.10.19
0.940.220.910.92-0.87-0.340.970.16-0.25-0.88-0.88-0.87-0.82-0.03-0.24-0.490.86-0.2-0.68-0.63-0.7-0.73
0.910.120.860.87-0.87-0.320.970.32-0.1-0.84-0.84-0.8-0.770.02-0.3-0.530.91-0.07-0.64-0.56-0.74-0.61
0.1-0.60.040.09-0.09-0.50.160.320.740.080.080.090.080.18-0.2-0.040.270.69-0.130.27-0.370.26
-0.38-0.86-0.44-0.410.32-0.17-0.25-0.10.740.520.520.550.25-0.040.190.03-0.070.720.10.54-0.140.74
-0.96-0.45-0.97-0.910.890.14-0.88-0.840.080.521.00.970.68-0.060.430.53-0.80.390.660.690.670.89
-0.96-0.45-0.97-0.910.890.14-0.88-0.840.080.521.00.970.68-0.060.430.53-0.80.390.660.690.670.89
-0.94-0.4-0.96-0.930.840.13-0.87-0.80.090.550.970.970.62-0.050.40.53-0.770.410.750.640.670.94
-0.64-0.3-0.61-0.60.730.18-0.82-0.770.080.250.680.680.620.060.00.42-0.710.30.480.770.380.53
0.020.040.020.03-0.09-0.01-0.030.020.18-0.04-0.06-0.06-0.050.06-0.850.020.180.02-0.11-0.390.04-0.06
-0.41-0.21-0.39-0.380.440.12-0.24-0.3-0.20.190.430.430.40.0-0.850.25-0.410.090.30.460.230.36
-0.50.03-0.43-0.50.73-0.18-0.49-0.53-0.040.030.530.530.530.420.020.25-0.620.160.740.330.430.35
0.8-0.010.760.73-0.81-0.120.860.910.27-0.07-0.8-0.8-0.77-0.710.18-0.41-0.62-0.24-0.72-0.57-0.77-0.55
-0.24-0.49-0.29-0.250.27-0.11-0.2-0.070.690.720.390.390.410.30.020.090.16-0.240.210.37-0.050.53
-0.660.17-0.66-0.710.640.01-0.68-0.64-0.130.10.660.660.750.48-0.110.30.74-0.720.210.370.730.6
-0.58-0.62-0.59-0.540.680.02-0.63-0.560.270.540.690.690.640.77-0.390.460.33-0.570.370.370.150.64
-0.710.32-0.71-0.660.520.1-0.7-0.74-0.37-0.140.670.670.670.380.040.230.43-0.77-0.050.730.150.44
-0.83-0.59-0.88-0.850.720.19-0.73-0.610.260.740.890.890.940.53-0.060.360.35-0.550.530.60.640.44
Click cells to compare fundamentals

Another angle On Rev

The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.31 B. Net Loss for the year was (29.3 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 251.8 M.

REV price dip is alarming

The mean deviation is down to 2.35 as of today. REV Group currently demonstrates below-verage downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.03 and Jensen Alpha of 0.03. However, we do advice investors to further question REV Group expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk.

Although many other companies in the farm & heavy construction machinery industry are either recovering or due for a correction, REV may not be performing as strong as the other in terms of long-term growth potentials. To conclude, as of the 7th of January 2021, we see that REV responds to the market. The firm is overvalued with below average probability of bankruptcy within the next 24 months. Our present 30 days 'Buy-vs-Sell' recommendation on the firm is Cautious Hold.

Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!

The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.

Try AI Portfolio Architect

Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Rifka Kats do not own shares of Rev Group. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

Would you like to provide feedback on the content of this article?

You can get in touch with us directly or send us a quick note via email to editors@macroaxis.com