What are the odds of Rexford (USA Stocks:REXR) to fall in July?

In the world of investing, it's often said that the only certainty is uncertainty. This sentiment rings particularly true when examining the potential volatility of Rexford Industrial Realty Stock (USA:REXR) in the coming month. As we approach July, investors are eyeing the stock's typical day price of $43.9, wondering if a dip is on the horizon. Rexford, a key player in the REIT - Industrial industry, has shown some signs of potential instability. The stock's Period Momentum Indicator stands at -0.04, hinting at a possible downward trend. Additionally, the Daily Balance Of Power, at -0.04, suggests a slight bearish sentiment among traders. However, it's not all doom and gloom for Rexford. The company's Valuation Real Value stands at $45.4, slightly above the typical day price, indicating some undervaluation. Moreover, the Analyst Overall Consensus for the stock is a 'Buy', with 5 strong buys, 3 buys, and only 1 sell. Investors should also consider the stock's Accumulation Distribution of 24.8K. This figure, which measures the degree to which the stock is being bought or sold over a given period, could suggest a potential upside. In conclusion, while there are signs of potential volatility for Rexford Industrial Realty Stock in July, the overall outlook appears cautiously optimistic. As always, investors are advised to keep a close eye on market trends and make informed decisions based on a comprehensive analysis of available data. Rexford Industrial Realty's stock is less volatile than 14% of stocks, yet it's projected that 99% of all traded equities will yield higher returns over a 60-day investment horizon. Despite the increasing interest in diversified REITs among risk-takers, Rexford Industrial's current volatility is causing some concern. The odds for Rexford Industrial to generate above-average margins before the next press release will be analyzed. Rexford Industrial's low volatility may not significantly affect its stock value, which is currently deemed to be fairly valued. Based on our calculations, the real value is nearing $45.40 per share.
Published few days ago
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Reviewed by Michael Smolkin

Rexford Industrial Realty operates within the Diversified REITs sector and is a part of the Real Estate industry.

Key Arguments

Rexford Industrial Realty Stock (USA:REXR) exhibits a mean deviation of 1.17 and a standard deviation of 1.55, indicating a moderate level of volatility. With a maximum drawdown of 8.2, investors should be prepared for potential dips in July. However, the accumulation distribution of 24.8K suggests a positive trend in the stock's liquidity, which could mitigate some of the risk associated with its volatility.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Rexford Industrial or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Rexford Industrial may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Rexford's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Rexford Industrial and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Rexford Industrial fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is Rexford Industrial's Liquidity

Rexford Industrial financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Rexford Industrial Realty ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Rexford Industrial financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Rexford Industrial's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Rexford Industrial's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Rexford Industrial's total debt and its cash.

Rexford Industrial Gross Profit

Rexford Industrial Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Rexford Industrial previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Rexford Industrial Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Rexford Industrial's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Rexford Industrial Volatility Drivers

Rexford Industrial unsystematic risk is unique to Rexford Industrial Realty and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in Rexford Industrial you can also buy Gfl Environmental Holdings. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the real estate sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing Rexford Industrial important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in Rexford Industrial income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about Rexford volatility.
1.01.0-0.32-0.021.01.00.990.450.450.08-0.20.55-0.02-0.50.960.58-0.45-0.43-0.30.97
1.01.0-0.3-0.051.01.00.990.420.420.08-0.190.53-0.02-0.50.950.58-0.46-0.44-0.270.96
1.01.0-0.3-0.021.01.00.990.430.430.09-0.20.54-0.03-0.480.950.59-0.43-0.41-0.290.96
-0.32-0.3-0.3-0.17-0.33-0.32-0.31-0.96-0.960.42-0.36-0.95-0.540.86-0.46-0.720.760.660.93-0.32
-0.02-0.05-0.02-0.17-0.04-0.04-0.070.180.180.29-0.030.140.08-0.02-0.050.220.010.12-0.360.03
1.01.01.0-0.33-0.041.01.00.450.450.05-0.20.55-0.02-0.50.960.59-0.45-0.43-0.30.96
1.01.01.0-0.32-0.041.01.00.450.450.05-0.20.55-0.02-0.50.960.58-0.45-0.43-0.30.96
0.990.990.99-0.31-0.071.01.00.430.430.06-0.220.54-0.05-0.50.960.58-0.45-0.43-0.280.96
0.450.420.43-0.960.180.450.450.431.0-0.40.290.940.5-0.80.570.76-0.67-0.56-0.930.44
0.450.420.43-0.960.180.450.450.431.0-0.40.290.940.5-0.80.570.76-0.67-0.56-0.930.44
0.080.080.090.420.290.050.050.06-0.4-0.4-0.38-0.23-0.330.230.010.010.160.170.160.27
-0.2-0.19-0.2-0.36-0.03-0.2-0.2-0.220.290.29-0.380.250.96-0.35-0.280.08-0.33-0.3-0.22-0.22
0.550.530.54-0.950.140.550.550.540.940.94-0.230.250.46-0.90.670.85-0.8-0.69-0.920.57
-0.02-0.02-0.03-0.540.08-0.02-0.02-0.050.50.5-0.330.960.46-0.52-0.080.33-0.47-0.41-0.44-0.02
-0.5-0.5-0.480.86-0.02-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.8-0.80.23-0.35-0.9-0.52-0.57-0.750.980.930.74-0.5
0.960.950.95-0.46-0.050.960.960.960.570.570.01-0.280.67-0.08-0.570.7-0.5-0.45-0.450.93
0.580.580.59-0.720.220.590.580.580.760.760.010.080.850.33-0.750.7-0.63-0.5-0.760.6
-0.45-0.46-0.430.760.01-0.45-0.45-0.45-0.67-0.670.16-0.33-0.8-0.470.98-0.5-0.630.980.63-0.46
-0.43-0.44-0.410.660.12-0.43-0.43-0.43-0.56-0.560.17-0.3-0.69-0.410.93-0.45-0.50.980.49-0.42
-0.3-0.27-0.290.93-0.36-0.3-0.3-0.28-0.93-0.930.16-0.22-0.92-0.440.74-0.45-0.760.630.49-0.37
0.970.960.96-0.320.030.960.960.960.440.440.27-0.220.57-0.02-0.50.930.6-0.46-0.42-0.37
Click cells to compare fundamentals

Details

The company reported the previous year's revenue of 797.83 M. Net Income was 249.59 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 480.7 M. "As the saying goes, 'The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.' This adage rings true when assessing the potential for Rexford Industrial Realty Stock (USA:REXR) to dip in July. With a high standard deviation of 1.55, the stock's volatility is evident, suggesting a potential dip could be on the horizon. However, the company's strong fundamentals, such as a gross profit of $480.7M and a net income of $249.59M, provide a counterbalance. The company's beta of 0.94 also indicates that the stock is less volatile than the market as a whole, which could mitigate some risk for investors. Nevertheless, with a probability of bankruptcy at 30.47%, investors should tread carefully and consider the potential for a dip in July."

Rexford Industrial has a good chance to finish above $45 in 2 months

Rexford Industrial Realty's stock exhibits a low variance of 2.42, indicating less price volatility compared to higher-variance stocks. This stability, along with strong fundamentals and positive market sentiment, suggests a potential rise above $45 in the next two months. The stock's low volatility, with a skewness of -0.74 and kurtosis of 1.09, allows investors to gauge market trends effectively. During bearish trends, increased volatility can impact Rexford Industrial's stock price and stress investors as share values drop, often prompting portfolio rebalancing with different financial instruments.In conclusion, despite the recent slump, Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR) still holds a promising investment outlook. The company's valuation real value stands at $45.4, which is higher than the current market value of $44.08.
This indicates that the stock is undervalued and has potential for growth. The analyst overall consensus is a 'Buy' with 3 buys, 5 strong buys, and only 1 sell. The possible upside price is $45, while the naive expected forecast value is $43.42. Furthermore, the analyst target price estimated value is a promising $59.62, with the highest estimated target price reaching up to $66.18. Therefore, despite the short-term slump, Rexford Industrial Realty presents a potentially profitable long-term investment opportunity..

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