Is Saia (NASDAQ:SAIA) a good hedge for your existing portfolios?

Saia is currently generating 0.1882% in daily expected returns and assumes 2.0938% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 60 days horizon. As many old-fashioned traders are trying to avoid industrials space, it makes sense to go over Saia Inc a little further and try to understand its current volatility patterns. What exactly are Saia shareholders getting in March?
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Rifka Kats

Saia Inc currently holds roughly 25.47 M in cash with 304.54 M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.98.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Saia or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Saia may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Saia's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Saia and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Saia fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is Saia's Liquidity

Saia financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Saia Inc ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Saia financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Saia's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Saia's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Saia's total debt and its cash.

Saia Gross Profit

Saia Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Saia previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Saia Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Saia's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Saia Volatility Drivers

Saia unsystematic risk is unique to Saia Inc and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in Saia you can also buy XPO Logistics. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the industrials sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing Saia important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in Saia income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about Saia volatility.
-0.650.8-0.20.520.680.980.460.970.750.80.80.91-0.340.150.630.450.990.280.880.91-0.570.46
-0.65-0.20.06-0.02-0.73-0.64-0.43-0.72-0.67-0.48-0.48-0.590.11-0.42-0.36-0.6-0.710.47-0.88-0.880.44-0.01
0.8-0.2-0.310.70.150.80.370.740.690.680.680.73-0.41-0.010.480.440.760.60.50.55-0.490.56
-0.20.06-0.31-0.450.01-0.330.18-0.14-0.070.00.0-0.060.98-0.080.1-0.02-0.16-0.2-0.02-0.050.86-0.56
0.52-0.020.7-0.450.010.55-0.150.450.280.440.440.44-0.560.110.260.280.480.420.280.25-0.60.95
0.68-0.730.150.010.010.620.20.640.290.530.530.65-0.090.190.560.060.67-0.120.750.77-0.320.09
0.98-0.640.8-0.330.550.620.460.970.770.740.740.86-0.460.190.530.480.980.260.860.89-0.670.51
0.46-0.430.370.18-0.150.20.460.550.690.340.340.420.180.030.30.520.51-0.030.550.560.05-0.26
0.97-0.720.74-0.140.450.640.970.550.830.770.770.87-0.270.20.550.571.00.150.930.95-0.530.39
0.75-0.670.69-0.070.280.290.770.690.830.590.590.65-0.120.270.360.780.80.050.760.8-0.380.16
0.8-0.480.680.00.440.530.740.340.770.591.00.96-0.110.370.90.340.780.260.670.7-0.320.37
0.8-0.480.680.00.440.530.740.340.770.591.00.96-0.110.370.90.340.780.260.670.7-0.320.37
0.91-0.590.73-0.060.440.650.860.420.870.650.960.96-0.190.270.860.350.890.260.770.82-0.420.37
-0.340.11-0.410.98-0.56-0.09-0.460.18-0.27-0.12-0.11-0.11-0.19-0.070.01-0.02-0.29-0.26-0.13-0.150.92-0.67
0.15-0.42-0.01-0.080.110.190.190.030.20.270.370.370.27-0.070.370.360.2-0.310.30.27-0.250.13
0.63-0.360.480.10.260.560.530.30.550.360.90.90.860.010.370.140.580.280.520.55-0.140.21
0.45-0.60.44-0.020.280.060.480.520.570.780.340.340.35-0.020.360.140.53-0.250.650.61-0.230.12
0.99-0.710.76-0.160.480.670.980.511.00.80.780.780.89-0.290.20.580.530.180.920.94-0.550.42
0.280.470.6-0.20.42-0.120.26-0.030.150.050.260.260.26-0.26-0.310.28-0.250.18-0.14-0.07-0.10.39
0.88-0.880.5-0.020.280.750.860.550.930.760.670.670.77-0.130.30.520.650.92-0.140.98-0.430.23
0.91-0.880.55-0.050.250.770.890.560.950.80.70.70.82-0.150.270.550.610.94-0.070.98-0.450.2
-0.570.44-0.490.86-0.6-0.32-0.670.05-0.53-0.38-0.32-0.32-0.420.92-0.25-0.14-0.23-0.55-0.1-0.43-0.45-0.69
0.46-0.010.56-0.560.950.090.51-0.260.390.160.370.370.37-0.670.130.210.120.420.390.230.2-0.69
Click cells to compare fundamentals

Breaking down the case for Saia

The modest gains experienced by current holders of Saia Inc created some momentum for investors as it was traded today as low as 185.0 and as high as 189.27 per share. The company directors and management have been quite successful in maneuvering the stock at opportune times to take advantage of all market conditions in January. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days investing horizon is currently 2.09. The current volatility is consistent with the ongoing market swings in January 2021 as well as with Saia Inc unsystematic, company-specific events.

Will price continue to rise in March 2021?

Current coefficient of variation is at 621.42. Saia Inc currently demonstrates below-verage downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.11 and Jensen Alpha of 0.33. However, we do advice investors to further question Saia Inc expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk.

Our Final Takeaway

Whereas some other companies under the trucking industry are still a bit expensive, Saia may offer a potential longer-term growth to investors. While some investors may not share our view we believe it may be a good time to drop Saia as the risk-reward trade off is not appealing enough to hold a position. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Saia.

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Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Vlad Skutelnik do not own shares of Saia Inc. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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