How risky is to double down on US Silica in March?

60% of stocks are less volatile than US Silica, and 63% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 60 days investment horizon. As many adventurous traders are excited about energy space, it is only fair to go over the risk of shorting US Silica Holdings based on its current volatility spike. We will evaluate if US Silica's current volatility will continue into March. The current US Silica risk factors may impact the value of the stock as we estimate US Silica as currently overvalued. The real value is approaching 7.29 per share.
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Vlad Skutelnik

US Silica Holdings currently holds roughly 134.92 M in cash with (6.78 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.83.
US Silica holds a performance score of 20 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The entity owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of -0.4901, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Let's try to break down what US Silica's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning US Silica are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, US Silica is likely to outperform the market. Although it is essential to pay attention to US Silica Holdings existing price patterns, it is also good to be reasonable about what you can do with equity price patterns. Our approach towards measuring future potential of any stock is to look not only at its past charts but also at the business as a whole, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. To evaluate if US Silica expected return of 2.06 will be sustainable into the future, we have found twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to check if the expected returns are sustainable. Use US Silica Holdings sortino ratio, semi variance, and the relationship between the information ratio and value at risk to analyze future returns on US Silica Holdings.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of US Silica or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of US Silica may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to SLCA's beta indicator, it measures the risk of US Silica and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of US Silica fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is US Silica's Liquidity

US Silica financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance US Silica Holdings ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. US Silica financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to US Silica's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of US Silica's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between US Silica's total debt and its cash.

US Silica Gross Profit

US Silica Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing US Silica previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show US Silica Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check US Silica's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

US Silica Volatility Drivers

US Silica unsystematic risk is unique to US Silica Holdings and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in US Silica you can also buy Newpark Resources. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the energy sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing US Silica important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in US Silica income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about SLCA volatility.
0.640.930.90.940.220.860.74-0.44-0.18-0.88-0.88-0.48-0.58-0.37-0.59-0.160.76-0.35-0.050.070.15-0.55
0.640.460.90.60.240.670.65-0.58-0.23-0.65-0.65-0.69-0.32-0.17-0.17-0.660.41-0.64-0.62-0.560.79-0.81
0.930.460.740.910.180.760.59-0.42-0.21-0.75-0.75-0.28-0.51-0.27-0.57-0.090.77-0.330.010.14-0.08-0.43
0.90.90.740.830.250.840.76-0.58-0.23-0.85-0.85-0.65-0.5-0.32-0.44-0.420.63-0.54-0.33-0.230.53-0.74
0.940.60.910.830.40.810.69-0.270.01-0.85-0.85-0.41-0.56-0.32-0.6-0.120.61-0.31-0.020.090.13-0.67
0.220.240.180.250.40.350.330.380.7-0.43-0.43-0.47-0.22-0.11-0.13-0.07-0.050.11-0.08-0.070.0-0.33
0.860.670.760.840.810.350.94-0.220.08-0.83-0.83-0.74-0.51-0.36-0.36-0.380.76-0.22-0.29-0.210.21-0.56
0.740.650.590.760.690.330.94-0.050.17-0.74-0.74-0.81-0.54-0.41-0.29-0.50.69-0.14-0.43-0.380.24-0.53
-0.44-0.58-0.42-0.58-0.270.38-0.22-0.050.830.280.280.040.06-0.030.170.25-0.390.710.210.11-0.490.34
-0.18-0.23-0.21-0.230.010.70.080.170.830.010.01-0.210.030.010.140.09-0.340.710.05-0.01-0.280.11
-0.88-0.65-0.75-0.85-0.85-0.43-0.83-0.740.280.011.00.70.490.390.470.2-0.620.370.09-0.03-0.20.61
-0.88-0.65-0.75-0.85-0.85-0.43-0.83-0.740.280.011.00.70.490.390.470.2-0.620.370.09-0.03-0.20.61
-0.48-0.69-0.28-0.65-0.41-0.47-0.74-0.810.04-0.210.70.70.360.380.040.63-0.410.250.580.51-0.430.5
-0.58-0.32-0.51-0.5-0.56-0.22-0.51-0.540.060.030.490.490.360.910.890.04-0.580.13-0.05-0.11-0.070.32
-0.37-0.17-0.27-0.32-0.32-0.11-0.36-0.41-0.030.010.390.390.380.910.75-0.04-0.420.04-0.12-0.17-0.060.15
-0.59-0.17-0.57-0.44-0.6-0.13-0.36-0.290.170.140.470.470.040.890.75-0.25-0.490.1-0.35-0.440.060.26
-0.16-0.66-0.09-0.42-0.12-0.07-0.38-0.50.250.090.20.20.630.04-0.04-0.25-0.220.40.990.92-0.550.45
0.760.410.770.630.61-0.050.760.69-0.39-0.34-0.62-0.62-0.41-0.58-0.42-0.49-0.22-0.36-0.12-0.06-0.08-0.23
-0.35-0.64-0.33-0.54-0.310.11-0.22-0.140.710.710.370.370.250.130.040.10.4-0.360.350.29-0.590.65
-0.05-0.620.01-0.33-0.02-0.08-0.29-0.430.210.050.090.090.58-0.05-0.12-0.350.99-0.120.350.96-0.560.39
0.07-0.560.14-0.230.09-0.07-0.21-0.380.11-0.01-0.03-0.030.51-0.11-0.17-0.440.92-0.060.290.96-0.540.32
0.150.79-0.080.530.130.00.210.24-0.49-0.28-0.2-0.2-0.43-0.07-0.060.06-0.55-0.08-0.59-0.56-0.54-0.72
-0.55-0.81-0.43-0.74-0.67-0.33-0.56-0.530.340.110.610.610.50.320.150.260.45-0.230.650.390.32-0.72
Click cells to compare fundamentals

Is US Silica valued fairly by the market?

US Silica Holdings reported the previous year's revenue of 957.67 M. Net Loss for the year was (411.53 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 337.08 M.

Will US Silica current rise continue?

Current variance is at 48.3. US Silica Holdings is displaying above-average volatility over the selected time horizon. Investors should scrutinize US Silica Holdings independently to ensure intended market timing strategies are aligned with expectations about US Silica volatility. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure US Silica's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact US Silica's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Our Bottom Line On US Silica Holdings

Whereas many other companies within the oil & gas equipment & services industry are still a little expensive, even after the recent corrections, US Silica may offer a potential longer-term growth to investors. The bottom line, as of the 27th of February 2021, we believe that at this point, US Silica is overvalued with below average odds of distress within the next 2 years. Our current advice on the company is Strong Sell.

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Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of US Silica Holdings. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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