Will Toronto Dominion (NYSE:TD) low risk outlook last untill March?

Toronto Dominion is generating 0.2145% of daily returns and assumes 1.0765% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. As many adventurous traders are excited about financial services space, it is only fair to digest the risk of shorting Toronto Dominion Bank based on its current volatility spike. We will discuss how risky is to take a position in Toronto Dominion at this time. Toronto Dominion's very low volatility may have no significant impact on the stock's value as we estimate Toronto Dominion as currently fairly valued. The real value, based on our calculations, is getting close to 61.32 per share.
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Michael Smolkin

The company is active under Financial Services sector as part of Banks—Diversified industry.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Toronto Dominion or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Toronto Dominion may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Toronto's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Toronto Dominion and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Toronto Dominion fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is Toronto Dominion's Liquidity

Toronto Dominion financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Toronto Dominion Bank ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Toronto Dominion financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Toronto Dominion's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Toronto Dominion's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Toronto Dominion's total debt and its cash.

Toronto Dominion Gross Profit

Toronto Dominion Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Toronto Dominion previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Toronto Dominion Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Toronto Dominion's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Toronto Dominion Volatility Drivers

Toronto Dominion unsystematic risk is unique to Toronto Dominion Bank and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in Toronto Dominion you can also buy Bank of Montreal. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the financials sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing Toronto Dominion important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in Toronto Dominion income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about Toronto volatility.
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Click cells to compare fundamentals

Is Toronto Dominion valued correctly by the market?

The latest bullish price patterns experienced by current Toronto Dominion shareholders created some momentum for shareholders as it was traded today as low as 61.4 and as high as 63.58 per share. The company management teams have been very successful in rebalancing the company assets at opportune times to take advantage of market volatility in January. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days investing horizon is currently 1.08. The below-average Stock volatility is a good sign for longer-term investment options and for buy-and-hold investors.

Will Toronto shareholders exit after the dip?

Toronto Dominion latest kurtosis ascents over 0.54. Toronto Dominion Bank has low volatility with Treynor Ratio of 0.29, Maximum Drawdown of 4.98 and kurtosis of 0.54. However, we advice all investors to further analyze Toronto Dominion Bank to make certain all market information is desiminated and is consistent with the current expectations about Toronto Dominion upside potential. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Toronto Dominion's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Toronto Dominion's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Although some other firms under the banks—diversified industry are still a bit expensive, Toronto Dominion may offer a potential longer-term growth to shareholders. With a less-than optimistic outlook for your 30 days horizon, it may be a good time to exit some or all of your Toronto Dominion holdings as it seems the potential growth was already fully factored into the current price. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Toronto Dominion.

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Editorial Staff

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