Breaking up Tiffany (NYSE:TIF) risk factors?

Tiffany is generating 0.0208% of daily returns assuming volatility of 1.6052% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. Although many risk-takers are getting more into consumer cyclical space, some of us are not very happy with Tiffany's current volatility. We will discuss why it could be a different year for Tiffany shareholders. Tiffany's very low volatility may have no significant impact on the stock's value as we estimate Tiffany as currently overvalued. The real value, based on our calculations, is getting close to 113.03 per share.
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Ellen Johnson

Tiffany Co has roughly 1.06 B in cash with 422.2 M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.72.

How important is Tiffany's Liquidity

Tiffany financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Tiffany Co ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Tiffany financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Tiffany's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Tiffany's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Tiffany's total debt and its cash.

Breaking down the case for Tiffany

The latest indifference towards the small price fluctuations of Tiffany created some momentum for shareholders as it was traded today as low as 125.81 and as high as 126.55 per share. The company executives did not add any value to Tiffany investors in July. However, most investors can still diversify their portfolios with Tiffany to hedge their inherited risk against high-volatility market scenarios. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days investing horizon is currently 1.61. The below-average Stock volatility is a good sign for longer-term investment options and for buy-and-hold investors.
 2017 2018 2019 2020 (projected)
Receivables231.2 M245.4 M240 M211.92 M
Inventories2.25 B2.43 B2.46 B2.2 B

Tiffany is projected to stay under $129 in September

Latest Jensen Alpha is up to 0.03. Price may dip again. Tiffany Co has relatively low volatility with skewness of -1.63 and kurtosis of 17.34. However, we advise all investors to independently investigate Tiffany Co to ensure all accessible information is consistent with the expectations about its upside potential and future expected returns.

The Current Takeaway on Tiffany Investment

Although other companies in the luxury goods industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Tiffany may not be performing as strong as the other in terms of long-term growth potentials. While some shareholders may not share our view we believe that the current risk-reward utility is not appealing enough to do any trading. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Tiffany.

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Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of Tiffany Co. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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