On a scale of 0 to 100, Tillys holds a
performance score of 14. The entity has a beta of 1.1669, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Tillys's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Tillys will likely underperform. Although it is vital to follow
Tillys Inc current price movements, it is good to be conservative about what you can do with the information regarding equity historical returns. The philosophy towards measuring
future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all
available fundamental and
technical indicators. By inspecting
Tillys Inc technical indicators, you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.44% will be sustainable into the future. Please operates Tillys
value at risk, as well as the
relationship between the kurtosis and
market facilitation index to make a quick decision on whether Tillys Inc existing
price patterns will revert.
The successful prediction of Tillys
stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published
stock prices of traded companies, such as Tillys Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at
the intrinsic value of Tillys based on Tillys hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used
predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to Tillys's
market risk, different
technical and
fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then
comparing them to Tillys's related companies.
Use Technical Analysis to project Tillys expected Price
Tillys technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Tillys technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Tillys trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions.
More Info...Tillys Gross Profit
Tillys Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Tillys previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Tillys Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Tillys'
gross profit and other
fundamental indicators for more details.
Details
The latest price spike of Tillys created some momentum for retail investors as it was traded today as low as
8.82 and as high as
9.59 per share. The company management teams may have good odds in positioning the company resources to exploit
market volatility in
January. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 90 days investing horizon is currently 2.26. The current volatility is consistent with the ongoing market swings in
November 2022 as well as with Tillys Inc unsystematic, company-specific events.
Deferred Revenue Breakdown
Tillys Deferred Revenue yearly trend continues to be relatively stable with very little volatility. Deferred Revenue is likely to drop to about 5.9
M. Deferred Revenue usually refers to a component of Total Liabilities representing the carrying amount of consideration received or receivable on potential earnings that were not recognized as revenue; including sales; license fees; and royalties; but excluding interest income. Tillys Deferred Revenue is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Tillys reported last year Deferred Revenue of 6.37 Million
| 2010 | 6.21 Million |
| 2014 | 8.17 Million |
| 2016 | 7.08 Million |
| 2021 | 6.37 Million |
| 2022 | 5.87 Million |
Tillys is getting insane
The mean deviation is down to 1.81 as of today.
As of the 1st of December, Tillys has the Semi Deviation of 2.15,
risk adjusted performance of 0.1953, and Coefficient Of Variation of 726.48. In relation to
fundamental indicators, the
technical analysis model makes it possible for you to check existing technical drivers of Tillys Inc, as well as the relationship between them. In other words, you can use this information to find out if the company will indeed mirror its model of past prices and volume data, or the prices will eventually revert. We have analyzed and interpolated nineteen
technical drivers for Tillys Inc, which can be compared to its competition. Please validate
Tillys Inc standard deviation,
value at risk, as well as the
relationship between the Value At Risk and
kurtosis to decide if Tillys is priced more or less accurately, providing market reflects its prevalent price of 8.87 per share. Given that Tillys Inc has
jensen alpha of 0.1738, we advise you to double-check Tillys Inc's current market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.
Our Conclusion on Tillys
While some firms under the apparel retail industry are still a bit expensive, Tillys may offer a potential longer-term growth to retail investors. With an optimistic outlook on your 90 days horizon, it may be a good time to pick up new shares of Tillys or increase your existing holdings in the Stock as it seems the potential growth has not yet been fully factored into the current price. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Tillys.
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Rifka Kats is a Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board. Rifka writes about retail product and service companies from the perspective of a regular consumer and sophisticated investor at the same time. She is passionate about corporate ethics and equality in the workforce.
View Profile This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Rifka Kats do not own shares of Tillys Inc. Please refer to our
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