Toyota Motor Story

TM -- USA Stock  

Last Earning Anouncement Date: March 31, 2016  

Macroaxis News
By Ellen Johnson
Today's write-up is for all investors who are seriously contemplating on taking a position in Toyota Motor. I will summarize the rationale of why Toyota Motor stakeholders were not insulted from the new market pull down. Toyota Motor chance of financial distress is under   39.00  . Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Toyota Motor is expected to generate 1.53 times less return on investment than the market. But when comparing it to its historical volatility, the company is 1.66 times less risky than the market. It trades about 0.14 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The market is currently generating roughly 0.13 of returns per unit of risk over similar time horizon. What is Toyota Motor Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price? Out from normal probability distribution, the odds of Toyota Motor to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 14.91%. The Toyota Motor Corporation probability density function shows the probability of Toyota Motor Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days . Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Toyota Motor has beta of 0.0922 . This entails as returns on market go up, Toyota Motor average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Toyota Motor Corporation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally, the company has an alpha of 0.0935 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0935% excess return over Russell 2000 after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
Toyota Motor gains 1.03 percent regardless of modest market pull down

The company is active under Consumer Cyclical sector as part of Auto Manufacturers industry. This firm dividends can provide a clue to current valuation of the stock. Toyota Motor one year expected dividend income is about $2.05 per share. Lets now take a look at Toyota Motor Price to Earning. Based on latest financial disclosure the price to earning indicator of Toyota Motor Corporation is roughly 8.68 times. This is 65.14% lower than that of the Consumer Cyclical sector, and 11.97% lower than that of Auto Manufacturers industry, The Price to Earning for all stocks is 69.78% higher than the company.

The modest gains experienced by current holders of Toyota Motor has created some momentum for investors as it was traded today as low as 141.01 and as high as 141.86 per share. The company directors and management have been quite successful with maneuvering the stock at opportune times to take advantage of all market conditions in October. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days (very short) investing horizon is currently 0.7485. The very small Stock volatility is a good signal to investors with longer term investment horizons. Toyota Motor preserves 123.50  of book value per share. Toyota Motor is selling for under 141.66. That is 1.03 percent increase. Opened at 141.66.

In closing, our final buy/sell advice on the business is Strong Hold. We believe Toyota Motor is overvalued with below average chance of distress for the next two years.

Toyota Motor Ownership Allocation (%)

About Contributor

Ellen Johnson
   Ellen Johnson is a Member of Macroaxs Editorial Board. Ellen covers public companies in North America focusing primarily on valuation and volatility. Six years of experience in predictive investment analytics and risk management. View Profile
This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered as solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Ellen Johnson do not own shares of Toyota Motor Corporation. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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Cash Flow from Operations

Cash Flow from Operations Comparative Analysis

  Cash Flow from Operations 
      Toyota Motor Comparables 
Toyota Motor is rated below average in cash flow from operations category among related companies. Operating Cash Flow reveals the quality of a company's reported earnings and is calculated by deducting company's income taxes from earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation (EBITDA). In other words, Operating Cash Flow refers to the amount of cash a firm generates from the sales or products or from rendering services. Operating Cash Flow typically excludes costs associated with long-term investments or investment in marketable securities and is usually used by investor or analyst to check on the quality of a company earnings.
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