Ulta Beauty Story

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ULTA -- USA Stock  

USD 222.88  2.86  1.27%

In general, we focus on analyzing Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. We also apply predictive analytics to build Ulta Beauty daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers. My story will go over Ulta Beauty. I will address few reasons this entity was abused by investors due to the current market volatility.
Published over a month ago
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Should I trade my Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) holdings?
This firm's average rating is Buy from 21 analysts. Macroaxis provides recommendation on Ulta Beauty to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Ulta Beauty. Our trade recommendation engine determines the firm's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon.
The successful prediction of Ulta Beauty stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ulta Beauty, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ulta Beauty based on Ulta Beauty hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to Ulta Beauty's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ulta Beauty's related companies.

Use Technical Analysis to project Ulta Beauty expected Price

Ulta Beauty technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Ulta Beauty technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Ulta Beauty trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...

What do experts say?

Stock analysis is a method for investors and traders to make buying and selling decisions. By studying and evaluating past and current data, investors and traders attempt to gain an edge in the markets by making informed decisions. It is good to see analyst projects for Ulta Beauty, but it might be worth checking our own buy vs. sell analysis

Exercise or conversion by Lorna Nagler of 3000 shares of Ulta Beauty subject to Rule 16b-3

Legal trades by Ulta Beauty insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Ulta Beauty insider trading alert for exercise of stock option (right to buy) by Lorna Nagler, the corporate stakeholder, on 8th of September 2020. This event was filed by Ulta Beauty Inc with SEC on 2020-09-08. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Breaking down Ulta Beauty Indicators

The company reported the previous year's revenue of 6.83 B. Net Income was 435.22 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3 B.
 2010 2014 2020 (projected)
Receivables47.05 M139.34 M100.94 M
Inventories457.93 M1.29 B986.81 M

Cost of Revenue Breakdown

Ulta Beauty Cost of Revenue is increasing over the years with slightly volatile fluctuation. Ongoing Cost of Revenue is projected to grow to about 2 B this year. Cost of Revenue usually refers to the aggregate cost of goods produced and sold and services rendered during the reporting period. Ulta Beauty Cost of Revenue is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Cost of Revenue was at 1.89 Billion
2010
2014
2016
2019
2020
20101.73 Billion
20142.54 Billion
20162.1 Billion
20191.89 Billion
20202.04 Billion

Ulta Beauty technical analysis suggests possible bounce-back

The variance is down to 7.16 as of today. Ulta Beauty exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.6 and kurtosis of 0.28. However, we advise investors to further study Ulta Beauty technical indicators to make sure all market info is available and is reliable.

Our Takeaway on Ulta Beauty Investment

Whereas many of the other players in the specialty retail industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Ulta Beauty may not be performing as strong as the other in terms of long-term growth potentials. All things considered, as of the 27th of August 2020, our research shows that Ulta Beauty is a rather very steady investment opportunity with a low probability of distress in the next two years. From a slightly different view, the entity currently appears to be fairly valued. Our current 30 days 'Buy-Sell' recommendation on the company is Cautious Hold.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Vlad Skutelnik do not own shares of Ulta Beauty. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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