United Parcel Story

UPS -- USA Stock  

Earnings Report: January 30, 2020  

Macroaxis News
  
By Ellen Johnson
This post is geared to all United Parcel management as well as to investors considering exiting their position in the enterprise. I will evaluate if United Parcel shares are sensibly priced going into August and whether management should be worried. This firm Piotroski F Score is 4 - Ordinary. Considering 30-days investment horizon, United Parcel is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 1.9 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.01 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The market is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of volatility. What is United Parcel Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price? In regard to normal probability distribution, the odds of United Parcel to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 15.79%. The United Parcel Service probability density function shows the probability of United Parcel Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days . Considering 30-days investment horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.2799 . This entails as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average . However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, United Parcel will likely underperform. Additionally, the company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. United Parcel Service is significantly underperforming S&P 500.
United Parcel is down 0.22 percent against market upswing

UNITED PARCEL SVC has roughly 5.11B in cash with 664.5M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.94. United Parcel dividends can provide a clue to current valuation of the stock. The firm one year expected dividend income is about $1.77 per share. Earning per share calculations of the firm is based on official Zacks consensus of 10 analysts regarding United Parcel Service future annual earnings. Given the historical accuracy of 99.54%, the future earnings per share of the company is estimated to be 7.4631 with lowest and highest values of 7.3 and 7.55 respectively. Please note that this consensus of annual earnings estimates for the entity is an estimate of EPS before non-recurring items and including employee stock options expenses.


The small decline in market price for the last few months has created some momentum for investors as it was traded today as low as 102.38 and as high as 105.12 per share. The company directors and management did not add much value to United Parcel Service investors in June. However, diversifying your holdings with United Parcel Service or similar stocks can still protect your portfolio during high-volatility market scenarios. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days (very short) investing horizon is currently 1.478. The below-average Stock volatility is a good sign for a longer term investment options and for buy-and-hold investors. United Parcel maintains total asset of 38.31b. United Parcel is trading at 102.97 which is 0.22 percent down. Opened at 102.97. United Parcel Trade and Non Trade Receivables is increasing over the last 5 years. The latest value of United Parcel Trade and Non Trade Receivables is 6,239,947,368. Also, United Parcel Gross Profit is increasing over the last 5 years. The latest value of United Parcel Gross Profit is 13,130,000,000.

 2015 2016 2018 2019 (projected)
United Parcel Consolidated Income 4,844,000,000  3,431,000,000  3,087,900,000  2,911,131,579 
United Parcel Direct Expenses 11,925,000,000  12,785,000,000  18,568,000,000  15,238,821,053 

To conclude, our analysis show that United Parcel Almost mirrors market. The enterprise is overvalued and projects probability of distress below average for the next 2 years. Our immediate 'Buy/Hold/Sell' recommendation on the enterprise is Strong Hold.

Exercise or conversion by Teri McClure of 3097 shares of United Parcel subject to Rule 16b-3

United Parcel Service insider trading alert for exercise of restricted performance units by Teri McClure, Sr VP Gen Counsel Sec, on October 23, 2019. This event was filed by United Parcel Service Inc with SEC on 2011-05-17. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4. Teri McClure is currently serves as chief legal officer, sr. vp of hr and secretary of United Parcel Service [view details]   

About Contributor

Ellen Johnson
   Ellen Johnson is a Member of Macroaxs Editorial Board. Ellen covers public companies in North America focusing primarily on valuation and volatility. Six years of experience in predictive investment analytics and risk management. View Profile
This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered as solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Ellen Johnson do not own shares of United Parcel Service. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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United Parcel is rated below average in total asset category among related companies. Total Asset is everything that a business owns. It is the sum of current and long-term assets owned by a firm at a given time. These assets are listed on a balance sheet and typically valued based on their purchasing prices, not the current market value.
Also please take a look at United Parcel Hype Analysis, United Parcel Correlation and United Parcel Performance. Please also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
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