On a scale of 0 to 100, Advanced Drainage holds a
performance score of 10. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0468, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Advanced's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Advanced Drainage are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Advanced Drainage is likely to outperform the market. Although it is vital to follow
Advanced Drainage historical returns, it is good to be conservative about what you can do with the information regarding equity current trending patterns. The philosophy towards foreseeing
future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all
available fundamental and
technical indicators. By analyzing
Advanced Drainage technical indicators, you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.38% will be sustainable into the future. Please makes use of Advanced Drainage
standard deviation, as well as the
relationship between the value at risk and
kurtosis to make a quick decision on whether Advanced Drainage
price patterns will revert.
The successful prediction of Advanced Drainage
stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published
stock prices of traded companies, such as Advanced Drainage Systems, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at
the intrinsic value of Advanced Drainage based on Advanced Drainage hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used
predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to Advanced Drainage's
market risk, different
technical and
fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then
comparing them to Advanced Drainage's related companies.
Use Technical Analysis to project Advanced expected Price
Advanced Drainage technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Advanced Drainage technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Advanced Drainage trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions.
More Info...Advanced Drainage Gross Profit
Advanced Drainage Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Advanced Drainage previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Advanced Drainage Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Advanced Drainage's
gross profit and other
fundamental indicators for more details.
Breaking it down
The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.77
B. Total Income to common stockholders was 86.66
M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 497.54
M.
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 (projected) |
Long Term Debt to Equity | 0.79 | 0.56 | 1.47 | Interest Coverage | 6.77 | 7.15 | 6.43 |
Cost of Revenue Breakdown
Advanced Drainage Cost of Revenue yearly trend continues to be relatively stable with very little volatility. Cost of Revenue is likely to drop to about 855.4
M. Cost of Revenue usually refers to the aggregate cost of goods produced and sold and services rendered during the reporting period. Advanced Drainage Cost of Revenue is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Advanced Drainage reported last year Cost of Revenue of 904.79 Million
| 2010 | 818.4 Million |
| 2012 | 829.14 Million |
| 2013 | 875.23 Million |
| 2014 | 974.96 Million |
| 2015 | 1.01 Billion |
| 2019 | 904.79 Million |
| 2020 | 855.41 Million |
Another setback for Advanced Drainage retail investors
Latest semi deviation is at 1.65. Advanced Drainage Systems currently demonstrates below-verage downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.19 and Jensen Alpha of 0.52. However, we do advice investors to further question Advanced Drainage Systems expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk.
Our Final Takeaway
While few other entities in the building products & equipment industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Advanced Drainage may not be performing as strong as the other in terms of long-term growth potentials. While some retail investors may not share our view we believe that the current risk-reward utility is not appealing enough to do any trading. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Advanced Drainage.
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Vlad Skutelnik is a Macroaxis Contributor. Vlad covers stocks, funds, cryptocurrencies, and ETFs that are traded in North America, focusing primarily on fundamentals, valuation and market volatility. He has many years of experience in fintech, predictive investment analytics, and risk management.
View Profile This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Vlad Skutelnik do not own shares of Advanced Drainage Systems. Please refer to our
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