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Macroaxis News
By Ellen Johnson
This talk is geared to all SPDR SP leadership as well as to investors considering exiting their position in the Exchange-traded Fund venture. I will break down why SPDR SP leadership may should not consider a stake in the Exchange-traded Fund venture. The firm current daily volatility is 4.34 percent, with beta of -0.17 and alpha of -0.26 over Russell 2000 . What is SPDR SP Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price? Attributed to normal probability distribution, the odds of SPDR SP to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 39.69%. The SPDR SP Retail probability density function shows the probability of SPDR SP Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days . Considering 30-days investment horizon, SPDR SP Retail has beta of -0.1655 . This means as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding SPDR SP are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, SPDR SP Retail is likely to outperform the market. Additionally, the company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. SPDR SP Retail is significantly underperforming Russell 2000 .
Anything left for SPDR SP in June?

The entity dividends can provide a clue to current valuation of the etf. SPDR SP Retail one year expected dividend income is about $0.33 per share.

The recent SPDR SP price drops may raise some interest from investors as it closed today at a share price of 36.95 on slow start in trading volume. The fund executives were unable to exploit market volatilities in April. However, diversifying your overall positions with SPDR SP Retail can protect your principal portfolio during market swings. The etf standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days (very short) investing horizon is currently 4.34. This high volatility is attributed to the latest market swings and not so good earning reports for some of the SPDR SP Retail constituents. SPDR SP discloses 238.67 m in net asset. SPDR SP is trading at 36.95. This is 2.02 percent increase. Day Low was 36.95.

To summarize, our ongoing buy vs. sell advice on the Exchange-traded Fund venture is Strong Sell. We believe SPDR SP is fairly valued with quite high chance of distress for the next two years.

About Contributor

Ellen Johnson
   Ellen Johnson is a Member of Macroaxs Editorial Board. Ellen covers public companies in North America focusing primarily on valuation and volatility. Six years of experience in predictive investment analytics and risk management. View Profile
This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered as solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Ellen Johnson do not own shares of SPDR SP Retail. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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Probability Of Bankruptcy

Probability Of Bankruptcy Comparative Analysis

  Probability Of Bankruptcy 
      SPDR SP Comparables 
SPDR SP is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy as compared to similar ETFs. For stocks, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100 indicating the actual probability the firm will be distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
Check out SPDR SP Hype Analysis, SPDR SP Correlation and SPDR SP Performance. Please also try Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot price ceiling movement for different equity instruments.
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