Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast SP 500 historic prices and determine the direction of S&P 500 future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of SP 500 historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. See also fundamental analysis of SP 500 to check your projections.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for SP 500 works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.
When S&P 500 prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any S&P 500 trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent SP 500 observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.