SP 500 Double Exponential Smoothing

GSPC -- USA Index  

 2,966  4.12  0.14%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast SP 500 historic prices and determine the direction of S&P 500 future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of SP 500 historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. See also fundamental analysis of SP 500 to check your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for SP 500 works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of S&P 500 on the next trading day is expected to be 2967.603941

SP 500 Prediction Pattern

SP 500 Forecasted Value

October 15, 2019
2,966
Market Value
2,968
Expected Value
2,971
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 4.3499
MADMean absolute deviation25.158
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0086
SAESum of the absolute errors1484.3235
When S&P 500 prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any S&P 500 trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent SP 500 observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

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