SP 500 Naive Prediction

GSPC -- USA Index  

 2,977  29.44  0.98%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast SP 500 historic prices and determine the direction of S&P 500 future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of SP 500 historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. See also fundamental analysis of SP 500 to check your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A naive forecasting model for SP 500 is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of S&P 500 value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of S&P 500 on the next trading day is expected to be 2964.35952

SP 500 Prediction Pattern

SP 500 Forecasted Value

September 20, 2019
2,977
Market Value
2,964
Expected Value
2,967
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria124.575
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation19.2864
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0066
SAESum of the absolute errors1176.4676
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of S&P 500. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

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