Agilent Technologies Naive Prediction

Agilent Technologies Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 68.79  0.05  0.0727%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Agilent Technologies historic prices and determine the direction of Agilent Technologies Inc future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Agilent Technologies historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Agilent Technologies Inc systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Agilent Technologies fundamentals over time. Check also Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agilent Technologies to cross-verify your projections.
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Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A naive forecasting model for Agilent Technologies is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Agilent Technologies Inc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Agilent Technologies Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 67.897721

Agilent Technologies Inc Prediction Pattern

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Agilent Technologies Forecasted Value

November 17, 2017
68.79
Market Value
Downside upside
67.9
Next Trading Day Expected Value
Target Price Odds
 Above  Below  
69.83
Upside
Upside upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria35.9757
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4483
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0066
SAESum of the absolute errors7.6209
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Agilent Technologies Inc. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

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