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Alcoa Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

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AA -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: March 31, 2020  

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Alcoa historic stock prices and determine the direction of Alcoa Corporation future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Alcoa historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Alcoa Corporation systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Alcoa fundamentals over time. Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alcoa to cross-verify your projections.
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A naive forecasting model for Alcoa is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Alcoa Corporation value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Alcoa Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 16.025852

Alcoa Stock Forecast Pattern

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Alcoa Forecasted Value

Market Value
16.10
February 24, 2020
16.03
Expected Value
24.15
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria116.7935
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3891
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.022
SAESum of the absolute errors23.7365
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Alcoa Corporation. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

Alcoa Risk Indicators

Current Sentiment - AA

Alcoa Investor Sentiment

Nearly all of Macroaxis users are presently bullish on Alcoa Corporation. What is your sentiment towards investing in Alcoa Corporation? Are you bullish or bearish?
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98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Alcoa Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alcoa and NORANDA ALUM HLDG. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alcoa to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.