American Airlines Triple Exponential Smoothing

AAL -- USA Stock  

USD 28.64  0.64  2.29%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast American Airlines historic prices and determine the direction of American Airlines Group future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of American Airlines historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of American Airlines Group systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of American Airlines fundamentals over time. Check also Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Airlines to cross-verify your projections.
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Triple exponential smoothing for American Airlines - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When American Airlines prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in American Airlines price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of American Airlines.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of American Airlines Group on the next trading day is expected to be 28.630749

American Airlines Prediction Pattern

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American Airlines Forecasted Value

September 20, 2019
28.64
Market Value
28.63
Expected Value
35.96
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.043
MADMean absolute deviation0.5579
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0192
SAESum of the absolute errors33.4727
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past American Airlines observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older American Airlines Group observations.

Volatility Measures

American Airlines Risk Indicators

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