Afcon Holdings Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AFHL Stock | ILS 9,517 75.00 0.79% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Afcon Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 9,503 with a mean absolute deviation of 120.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,227. Afcon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Afcon Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Afcon Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Afcon Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Afcon Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Afcon |
Most investors in Afcon Holdings cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Afcon Holdings' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Afcon Holdings' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Afcon Holdings - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Afcon Holdings prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Afcon Holdings price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Afcon Holdings. Afcon Holdings Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Afcon Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 9,503 with a mean absolute deviation of 120.44, mean absolute percentage error of 24,045, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,227.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Afcon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Afcon Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Afcon Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Afcon Holdings | Afcon Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Afcon Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Afcon Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Afcon Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9,502 and 9,504, respectively. We have considered Afcon Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Afcon Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Afcon Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -19.2713 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 120.4433 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0122 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7226.5973 |
Predictive Modules for Afcon Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Afcon Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Afcon Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Afcon Holdings
For every potential investor in Afcon, whether a beginner or expert, Afcon Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Afcon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Afcon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Afcon Holdings' price trends.Afcon Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Afcon Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Afcon Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Afcon Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Afcon Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Afcon Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Afcon Holdings' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Afcon Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Afcon Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Afcon Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Afcon Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Afcon Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Afcon Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Afcon Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Afcon Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting afcon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Variance | 3.07 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Afcon Holdings in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Afcon Holdings' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Afcon Holdings options trading.
Pair Trading with Afcon Holdings
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Afcon Holdings position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Afcon Holdings will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Afcon Stock
| 0.55 | APLY | Aerodrome Group | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | MCTC | Nextage Therapeutics | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Afcon Holdings could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Afcon Holdings when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Afcon Holdings - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Afcon Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Afcon Holdings is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Afcon Holdings moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Afcon Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Afcon Holdings can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Afcon Holdings to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Complementary Tools for Afcon Stock analysis
When running Afcon Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Afcon Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Afcon Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Afcon Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Afcon Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Afcon Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Afcon Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Bonds Directory Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies | |
| Piotroski F Score Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals | |
| Idea Analyzer Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas | |
| ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world | |
| Portfolio Comparator Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account | |
| Portfolio Dashboard Portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments | |
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences |