Amanet Management Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

AMAN Stock  ILS 1,690  27.00  1.62%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amanet Management Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 1,687 with a mean absolute deviation of  20.67  and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,261. Amanet Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Amanet Management stock prices and determine the direction of Amanet Management Systems's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Amanet Management's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amanet Management to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Amanet Management cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Amanet Management's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Amanet Management's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Amanet Management simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Amanet Management Systems are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Amanet Management Systems prices get older.

Amanet Management Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amanet Management Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 1,687 with a mean absolute deviation of 20.67, mean absolute percentage error of 708.59, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,261.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amanet Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amanet Management's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Amanet Management Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Amanet ManagementAmanet Management Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Amanet Management Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Amanet Management's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amanet Management's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,685 and 1,689, respectively. We have considered Amanet Management's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,690
1,687
Expected Value
1,689
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amanet Management stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amanet Management stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria124.6738
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.7823
MADMean absolute deviation20.6701
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0122
SAESum of the absolute errors1260.8754
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Amanet Management Systems forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Amanet Management observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Amanet Management

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amanet Management Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amanet Management's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,6981,7001,702
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,6961,6981,700
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
1,6761,6901,704
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amanet Management. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amanet Management's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amanet Management's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Amanet Management Systems.

Other Forecasting Options for Amanet Management

For every potential investor in Amanet, whether a beginner or expert, Amanet Management's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amanet Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amanet. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amanet Management's price trends.

Amanet Management Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amanet Management stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amanet Management could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amanet Management by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Amanet Management Systems Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Amanet Management's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Amanet Management's current price.

Amanet Management Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amanet Management stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amanet Management shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amanet Management stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amanet Management Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Amanet Management Risk Indicators

The analysis of Amanet Management's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amanet Management's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amanet stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Amanet Management

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Amanet Management position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Amanet Management will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Amanet Stock

  0.52HARL Harel Insurance Inve Earnings Call TodayPairCorr
  0.43CLIS Clal Insurance Enter Earnings Call TodayPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Amanet Management could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Amanet Management when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Amanet Management - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Amanet Management Systems to buy it.
The correlation of Amanet Management is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Amanet Management moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Amanet Management Systems moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Amanet Management can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amanet Management to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Amanet Management's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amanet Management is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amanet Management's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.