>

American Beacon Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

AM
AMDRX -- USA Fund  

USD 8.47  0.69  7.53%

American Beacon Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast American Beacon historic stock prices and determine the direction of American Beacon Mid Cap Value F future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of American Beacon historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Beacon to cross-verify your projections.
View Mutual Fund Forecast For
Refresh
A naive forecasting model for American Beacon is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of American Beacon Mid Cap Value F value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the forecasted value of American Beacon Mid Cap Value F on the next trading day is expected to be  10.90  with a mean absolute deviation of  0.52 , mean absolute percentage error of  0.52 , and the sum of the absolute errors of  32.43 
 10.90 

American Beacon Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest American BeaconAmerican Beacon Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

American Beacon Forecasted Value

Market Value
8.47
4th of April 2020
10.90
Expected Value
25.99
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria119.3002
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.523
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0468
SAESum of the absolute errors32.4255
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of American Beacon Mid Cap Value F. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

American Beacon Risk Indicators

Current Sentiment - AMDRX

American Beacon Mid Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are unresponsive in their sentiment towards investing in American Beacon Mid Cap Value F. What is your sentiment towards investing in American Beacon Mid Cap Value F? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
Skip

American Beacon Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Beacon and JPMorgan Mid Cap. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Beacon to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and etfs managed around the world.
Macroaxis is not a registered investment advisor or broker/dealer. All investments, including stocks, funds, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies, are speculative and involve substantial risk of loss. We encourage our investors to invest carefully. Much of our information is derived directly from data published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies which we believe are reliable, but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements or recommendations. Also, note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, and all investment decisions of an individual remain the responsibility of that individual. There is no guarantee that systems, indicators, or signals will result in profits or that they will not result in losses. All investors are advised to fully understand all risks associated with any investing they choose to do. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not indicative of future results. We make no representations or warranties that any investor will, or is likely to, achieve profits similar to those shown because hypothetical or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. For more information please visit our terms and condition page