American Century 4 Period Moving Average

AMDVX -- USA Fund  

USD 16.96  0.15  0.89%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast American Century historic prices and determine the direction of American Century Mid Cap Value future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of American Century historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check also Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Century to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A four-period moving average forecast model for American Century Mid Cap Value is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of American Century Mid Cap Value on the next trading day is expected to be 16.875

American Century Mid Prediction Pattern

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American Century Forecasted Value

Market Value
16.96
December 15, 2019
16.88
Expected Value
19.59
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria107.3357
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0381
MADMean absolute deviation0.14
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0086
SAESum of the absolute errors7.98
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of American Century. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for American Century Mid Cap Value and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Volatility Measures

American Century Risk Indicators

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