American Century Double Exponential Smoothing

AMDVX -- USA Fund  

USD 16.79  0.04  0.24%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast American Century historic prices and determine the direction of American Century Mid Cap Value future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of American Century historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check also Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Century to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for American Century works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of American Century Mid Cap Value on the next trading day is expected to be 16.778802

American Century Mid Prediction Pattern

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American Century Forecasted Value

Market Value
December 10, 2019
Expected Value

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0244
MADMean absolute deviation0.1072
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0067
SAESum of the absolute errors6.3243
When American Century Mid Cap Value prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any American Century Mid Cap Value trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent American Century observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Volatility Measures

American Century Risk Indicators