American Century Naive Prediction

AMDVX -- USA Fund  

USD 16.96  0.15  0.89%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast American Century historic prices and determine the direction of American Century Mid Cap Value future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of American Century historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check also Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Century to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A naive forecasting model for American Century is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of American Century Mid Cap Value value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of American Century Mid Cap Value on the next trading day is expected to be 17.097392

American Century Mid Prediction Pattern

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American Century Forecasted Value

Market Value
16.96
December 15, 2019
17.10
Expected Value
19.81
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria114.1278
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1004
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0062
SAESum of the absolute errors6.1221
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of American Century Mid Cap Value. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

American Century Risk Indicators

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