American Century Simple Exponential Smoothing

AMDVX -- USA Fund  

USD 16.68  0.03  0.18%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast American Century historic prices and determine the direction of American Century Mid Cap Value future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of American Century historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check also Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Century to cross-verify your projections.
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American Century simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for American Century Mid Cap Value are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as American Century Mid prices get older.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of American Century Mid Cap Value on the next trading day is expected to be 16.677874

American Century Mid Prediction Pattern

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American Century Forecasted Value

Market Value
16.68
December 8, 2019
16.68
Expected Value
19.42
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria112.421
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0086
MADMean absolute deviation0.1025
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0064
SAESum of the absolute errors6.1519
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting American Century Mid Cap Value forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent American Century observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Volatility Measures

American Century Risk Indicators

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