American Century Triple Exponential Smoothing

AMDVX -- USA Fund  

USD 15.76  0.16  1.00%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast American Century historic prices and determine the direction of American Century Mid Cap Value future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of American Century historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check also Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Century to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Triple exponential smoothing for American Century - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When American Century prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in American Century price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of American Century Mid.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of American Century Mid Cap Value on the next trading day is expected to be 15.780606

American Century Mid Prediction Pattern

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American Century Forecasted Value

October 17, 2019
15.76
Market Value
15.78
Expected Value
19.20
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.023
MADMean absolute deviation0.1523
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0098
SAESum of the absolute errors9.1352
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past American Century observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older American Century Mid Cap Value observations.

Volatility Measures

American Century Risk Indicators

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