New Economy Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| ANFFX Fund | USD 57.76 0.10 0.17% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of New Economy Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 57.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.11. New Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast New Economy stock prices and determine the direction of New Economy Fund's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of New Economy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of New Economy to cross-verify your projections. New |
Most investors in New Economy cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the New Economy's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets New Economy's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for New Economy Fund is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. New Economy 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of New Economy Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 57.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53, mean absolute percentage error of 0.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.11.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict New Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that New Economy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
New Economy Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest New Economy | New Economy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
New Economy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting New Economy's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. New Economy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 56.23 and 58.13, respectively. We have considered New Economy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of New Economy mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent New Economy mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.9488 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0841 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5282 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0091 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 30.1075 |
Predictive Modules for New Economy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Economy Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of New Economy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for New Economy
For every potential investor in New, whether a beginner or expert, New Economy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. New Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in New. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying New Economy's price trends.New Economy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with New Economy mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of New Economy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing New Economy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
New Economy Fund Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of New Economy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of New Economy's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
New Economy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how New Economy mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading New Economy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying New Economy mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify New Economy Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 57.76 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 57.76 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.05) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.10) |
New Economy Risk Indicators
The analysis of New Economy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in New Economy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting new mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7122 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7868 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9308 | |||
| Variance | 0.8663 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8248 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.619 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.75) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards New Economy in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, New Economy's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from New Economy options trading.
Pair Trading with New Economy
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if New Economy position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in New Economy will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with New Mutual Fund
| 0.88 | AMECX | Income Fund | PairCorr |
| 0.97 | RNEBX | New World Fund | PairCorr |
| 0.93 | AMFCX | American Mutual | PairCorr |
| 0.93 | AMFFX | American Mutual | PairCorr |
| 0.89 | RNCCX | American Funds Me | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to New Economy could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace New Economy when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back New Economy - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling New Economy Fund to buy it.
The correlation of New Economy is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as New Economy moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if New Economy Fund moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for New Economy can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of New Economy to cross-verify your projections. Note that the New Economy Fund information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other New Economy's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.