ANTOFAGASTA Naive Prediction

ANFGF -- USA Stock  

USD 11.49  0.36  3.04%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast ANTOFAGASTA historic prices and determine the direction of ANTOFAGASTA future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of ANTOFAGASTA historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check also Historical Fundamental Analysis of ANTOFAGASTA to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A naive forecasting model for ANTOFAGASTA is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ANTOFAGASTA value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of ANTOFAGASTA on the next trading day is expected to be 10.982276

ANTOFAGASTA Prediction Pattern

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ANTOFAGASTA Forecasted Value

November 15, 2019
11.49
Market Value
10.98
Expected Value
17.52
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria115.5335
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2301
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0213
SAESum of the absolute errors14.0349
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ANTOFAGASTA. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

ANTOFAGASTA Risk Indicators

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