Antero Resources Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| AR Stock | USD 31.02 0.65 2.14% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Antero Resources Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 30.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.82 and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.12. Antero Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Antero Resources stock prices and determine the direction of Antero Resources Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Antero Resources' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Antero Resources to cross-verify your projections. Antero |
Most investors in Antero Resources cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Antero Resources' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Antero Resources' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Antero Resources polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Antero Resources Corp as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Antero Resources Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Antero Resources Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 30.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.82, mean absolute percentage error of 0.89, and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Antero Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Antero Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Antero Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Antero Resources | Antero Resources Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Antero Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Antero Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Antero Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.88 and 32.69, respectively. We have considered Antero Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Antero Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Antero Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.9927 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8217 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0324 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 50.1218 |
Predictive Modules for Antero Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Antero Resources Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Antero Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Antero Resources
For every potential investor in Antero, whether a beginner or expert, Antero Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Antero Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Antero. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Antero Resources' price trends.Antero Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Antero Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Antero Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Antero Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Antero Resources Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Antero Resources' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Antero Resources' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Antero Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Antero Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Antero Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Antero Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Antero Resources Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Antero Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of Antero Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Antero Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting antero stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.41 | |||
| Variance | 5.79 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.58 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.39 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.87) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Antero Resources
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Antero Resources position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Antero Resources will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Antero Stock
| 0.67 | PR | Permian Resources Financial Report 13th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.91 | SD | SandRidge Energy Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.68 | SM | SM Energy | PairCorr |
Moving against Antero Stock
| 0.69 | EP | Empire Petroleum Corp | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Antero Resources could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Antero Resources when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Antero Resources - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Antero Resources Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Antero Resources is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Antero Resources moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Antero Resources Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Antero Resources can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Antero Resources to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Complementary Tools for Antero Stock analysis
When running Antero Resources' price analysis, check to measure Antero Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Antero Resources is operating at the current time. Most of Antero Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Antero Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Antero Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Antero Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Antero Resources' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Antero Resources. If investors know Antero will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Antero Resources listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Antero Resources Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Antero that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Antero Resources' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Antero Resources' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Antero Resources' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Antero Resources' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Antero Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Antero Resources is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Antero Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.