Avgol Industries Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average
| AVGL Stock | 124.00 0.70 0.56% |
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Avgol Industries 1953 on the next trading day is expected to be 127.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 199.70. Avgol Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Avgol Industries stock prices and determine the direction of Avgol Industries 1953's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Avgol Industries' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Avgol Industries to cross-verify your projections. Avgol |
Most investors in Avgol Industries cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Avgol Industries' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Avgol Industries' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Avgol Industries is based on an artificially constructed time series of Avgol Industries daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Avgol Industries 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Avgol Industries 1953 on the next trading day is expected to be 127.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.70, mean absolute percentage error of 18.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 199.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Avgol Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Avgol Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Avgol Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Avgol Industries | Avgol Industries Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Avgol Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Avgol Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Avgol Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 125.67 and 129.85, respectively. We have considered Avgol Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Avgol Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Avgol Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.1525 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 2.3472 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.6981 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0264 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 199.7 |
Predictive Modules for Avgol Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avgol Industries 1953. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Avgol Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Avgol Industries
For every potential investor in Avgol, whether a beginner or expert, Avgol Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Avgol Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Avgol. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Avgol Industries' price trends.Avgol Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Avgol Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Avgol Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Avgol Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Avgol Industries 1953 Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Avgol Industries' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Avgol Industries' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Avgol Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Avgol Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Avgol Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Avgol Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Avgol Industries 1953 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 642.34 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.39) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 124.3 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 124.2 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.65) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.70) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 27.45 |
Avgol Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of Avgol Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Avgol Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting avgol stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.97 | |||
| Variance | 3.87 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Avgol Industries
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Avgol Industries position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Avgol Industries will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Avgol Stock
| 0.59 | HRON | Hiron Trade Investments | PairCorr |
| 0.47 | DIFI | Direct Finance TA | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Avgol Industries could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Avgol Industries when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Avgol Industries - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Avgol Industries 1953 to buy it.
The correlation of Avgol Industries is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Avgol Industries moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Avgol Industries 1953 moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Avgol Industries can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Avgol Industries to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Complementary Tools for Avgol Stock analysis
When running Avgol Industries' price analysis, check to measure Avgol Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Avgol Industries is operating at the current time. Most of Avgol Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Avgol Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Avgol Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Avgol Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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