Bankinvest Danske Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

BAIDKAAKA  DKK 222.50  0.70  0.31%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bankinvest Danske on the next trading day is expected to be 224.08 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.05  and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.29. Bankinvest Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bankinvest Danske stock prices and determine the direction of Bankinvest Danske's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bankinvest Danske's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out fundamental analysis of Bankinvest Danske to check your projections.
  
Most investors in Bankinvest Danske cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bankinvest Danske's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bankinvest Danske's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Bankinvest Danske is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Bankinvest Danske value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Bankinvest Danske Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bankinvest Danske on the next trading day is expected to be 224.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05, mean absolute percentage error of 1.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.29.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bankinvest Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bankinvest Danske's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bankinvest Danske Fund Forecast Pattern

Bankinvest Danske Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bankinvest Danske's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bankinvest Danske's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 223.49 and 224.68, respectively. We have considered Bankinvest Danske's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
222.50
223.49
Downside
224.08
Expected Value
224.68
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bankinvest Danske fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bankinvest Danske fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.5926
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.054
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0049
SAESum of the absolute errors64.2913
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Bankinvest Danske. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Bankinvest Danske. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Bankinvest Danske

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bankinvest - Danske. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bankinvest Danske's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
221.91222.50223.09
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
214.19214.78244.75
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
222.01222.77223.52
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bankinvest Danske. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bankinvest Danske's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bankinvest Danske's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Bankinvest - Danske.

Other Forecasting Options for Bankinvest Danske

For every potential investor in Bankinvest, whether a beginner or expert, Bankinvest Danske's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bankinvest Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bankinvest. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bankinvest Danske's price trends.

Bankinvest Danske Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bankinvest Danske fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bankinvest Danske could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bankinvest Danske by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bankinvest - Danske Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bankinvest Danske's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bankinvest Danske's current price.

Bankinvest Danske Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bankinvest Danske fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bankinvest Danske shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bankinvest Danske fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Bankinvest Danske entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bankinvest Danske Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bankinvest Danske's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bankinvest Danske's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bankinvest fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Bankinvest Danske in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Bankinvest Danske's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Bankinvest Danske options trading.
Check out fundamental analysis of Bankinvest Danske to check your projections.
You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.

Complementary Tools for Bankinvest Fund analysis

When running Bankinvest Danske's price analysis, check to measure Bankinvest Danske's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bankinvest Danske is operating at the current time. Most of Bankinvest Danske's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bankinvest Danske's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bankinvest Danske's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bankinvest Danske to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Bankinvest Danske's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bankinvest Danske is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bankinvest Danske's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.