Sothebys Double Exponential Smoothing

BID -- USA Stock  

USD 56.87  0.03  0.05%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Sothebys historic prices and determine the direction of Sothebys future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Sothebys historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Sothebys systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Sothebys fundamentals over time. Check also Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sothebys to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Sothebys works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Sothebys on the next trading day is expected to be 56.877846

Sothebys Prediction Pattern

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Sothebys Forecasted Value

September 19, 2019
56.87
Market Value
56.88
Expected Value
59.07
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.076
MADMean absolute deviation0.33
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0057
SAESum of the absolute errors19.4697
When Sothebys prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Sothebys trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Sothebys observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Volatility Measures

Sothebys Risk Indicators

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