Bank of New York Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BK Stock  USD 56.93  0.32  0.57%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bank Of New on the next trading day is expected to be 57.22 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.43  and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.75. Bank Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bank of New York stock prices and determine the direction of Bank Of New's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bank of New York's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Bank of New York's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Bank of New York's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bank of New York fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank of New York to cross-verify your projections.
  
Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 11.19 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to (0.0003). . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to rise to about 871.9 M this year, although the value of Net Income Applicable To Common Shares will most likely fall to about 2.5 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Bank Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Bank of New York's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Bank of New York's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Bank of New York stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Bank of New York's open interest, investors have to compare it to Bank of New York's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Bank of New York is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Bank. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Bank of New York cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bank of New York's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bank of New York's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Bank of New York is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Bank Of New value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Bank of New York Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bank Of New on the next trading day is expected to be 57.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.75.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank of New York's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bank of New York Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Bank of New YorkBank of New York Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Bank of New York Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bank of New York's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bank of New York's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 56.24 and 58.20, respectively. We have considered Bank of New York's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
56.93
57.22
Expected Value
58.20
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank of New York stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank of New York stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.7608
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4314
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0079
SAESum of the absolute errors26.7477
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Bank Of New. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Bank of New York. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Bank of New York

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank of New York. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bank of New York's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
55.9956.9757.95
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
52.9953.9762.62
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
56.3556.6957.03
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
47.5952.3058.05
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bank of New York. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bank of New York's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bank of New York's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Bank of New York.

Other Forecasting Options for Bank of New York

For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank of New York's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank of New York's price trends.

Bank of New York Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bank of New York stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bank of New York could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bank of New York by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bank of New York Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bank of New York's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bank of New York's current price.

Bank of New York Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank of New York stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank of New York shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank of New York stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank Of New entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bank of New York Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bank of New York's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank of New York's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Bank of New York

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bank of New York position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bank of New York will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Bank Stock

  0.8MA Mastercard Financial Report 25th of April 2024 PairCorr
  0.73AXP American Express Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.64BAM Brookfield Asset Man Financial Report 8th of May 2024 PairCorr

Moving against Bank Stock

  0.76MBCN Middlefield Banc Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.76AC Associated CapitalPairCorr
  0.73BY Byline Bancorp Normal TradingPairCorr
  0.66MCBC Macatawa Bank Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.57DHIL Diamond Hill InvestmentPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bank of New York could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bank of New York when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bank of New York - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bank Of New to buy it.
The correlation of Bank of New York is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bank of New York moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bank of New York moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bank of New York can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Bank of New York is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Bank Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Bank Of New Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Bank Of New Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank of New York to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.

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When running Bank of New York's price analysis, check to measure Bank of New York's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bank of New York is operating at the current time. Most of Bank of New York's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bank of New York's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bank of New York's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bank of New York to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Bank of New York's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bank of New York. If investors know Bank will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bank of New York listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.68)
Dividend Share
1.58
Earnings Share
3.87
Revenue Per Share
22.17
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.084
The market value of Bank of New York is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bank that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bank of New York's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bank of New York's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bank of New York's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bank of New York's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bank of New York's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bank of New York is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bank of New York's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.