BOK Financial Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| BOKF Stock | USD 89.26 1.41 1.61% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BOK Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 88.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.51. BOK Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast BOK Financial stock prices and determine the direction of BOK Financial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of BOK Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although BOK Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of BOK Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of BOK Financial fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BOK Financial to cross-verify your projections. BOK |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 BOK Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast BOK Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in BOK Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for BOK Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current BOK Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to BOK Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of BOK Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in BOK. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in BOK Financial cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the BOK Financial's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets BOK Financial's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for BOK Financial - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When BOK Financial prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in BOK Financial price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of BOK Financial. BOK Financial Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BOK Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 88.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04, mean absolute percentage error of 2.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BOK Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BOK Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
BOK Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest BOK Financial | BOK Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
BOK Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting BOK Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BOK Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 87.28 and 90.70, respectively. We have considered BOK Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BOK Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BOK Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3422 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0418 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0121 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 62.51 |
Predictive Modules for BOK Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BOK Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BOK Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for BOK Financial
For every potential investor in BOK, whether a beginner or expert, BOK Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BOK Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BOK. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BOK Financial's price trends.BOK Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BOK Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BOK Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BOK Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
BOK Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of BOK Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of BOK Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
BOK Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BOK Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BOK Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BOK Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify BOK Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3604.06 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.5685 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 88.56 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 88.79 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.41 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.41 |
BOK Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of BOK Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BOK Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bok stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Variance | 2.88 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.45 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.14 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.54) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
BOK Financial Investors Sentiment
The influence of BOK Financial's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in BOK. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to BOK Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in BOK. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding BOK can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around BOK Financial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
BOK Financial's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for BOK Financial's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average BOK Financial's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on BOK Financial.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards BOK Financial in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, BOK Financial's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from BOK Financial options trading.
Pair Trading with BOK Financial
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if BOK Financial position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in BOK Financial will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with BOK Stock
| 0.81 | DB | Deutsche Bank AG Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | NU | Nu Holdings Financial Report 20th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
Moving against BOK Stock
| 0.54 | EBTC | Enterprise Bancorp Earnings Call Today | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | VBNK | VersaBank Financial Report 5th of June 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | EBMT | Eagle Bancorp Montana Earnings Call Today | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to BOK Financial could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace BOK Financial when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back BOK Financial - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling BOK Financial to buy it.
The correlation of BOK Financial is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as BOK Financial moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if BOK Financial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for BOK Financial can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BOK Financial to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in BOK Stock please use our How to Invest in BOK Financial guide.You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Complementary Tools for BOK Stock analysis
When running BOK Financial's price analysis, check to measure BOK Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BOK Financial is operating at the current time. Most of BOK Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BOK Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BOK Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BOK Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Crypto Correlations Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins | |
| Commodity Directory Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges | |
| Pattern Recognition Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges | |
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences | |
| Equity Valuation Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data | |
| Stocks Directory Find actively traded stocks across global markets | |
| Instant Ratings Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges | |
| Portfolio Comparator Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account | |
| Idea Analyzer Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas | |
| Price Ceiling Movement Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments |
Is BOK Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of BOK Financial. If investors know BOK will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about BOK Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.49) | Dividend Share 2.18 | Earnings Share 8.02 | Revenue Per Share 30.71 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) |
The market value of BOK Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of BOK that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of BOK Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is BOK Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because BOK Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect BOK Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between BOK Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if BOK Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, BOK Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.